BAY POST INTERNET: Emails & Opinions Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics

From: Extensive Media Enterprises

Good Tuesday morning. Happy Election Day.

The Cook Political Report has released its final ratings for the 2026 Midterm Elections.

Dave Wasserman says the last five House moves all went toward Democrats, including Florida’s 4th Congressional District. Cook rates 18 seats Likely Democratic, 18 Lean Democratic, 18 Toss-Up, 18 Lean Republican, and 17 Likely Republican. Republicans hold 14 of the 18 Toss-Ups.

Erin Covey’s hour-by-hour Election Night guide has the full list.

*Election Day arrives with control of Congress hanging in the balance.*

In Florida, U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s CD 25 is Lean Democratic. U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor’s CD 14 and the open CD 22 are Toss-Ups. The open CD 7, U.S. Rep. Darren Soto’s CD 9, U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s CD 13, and U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar’s CD 27 are Lean Republican. The open CD 16 and U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean’s CD 4 are Likely Republican.

Cook moved Bean’s seat from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its final update. I’m not buying it. CD 4 is a Jacksonville-area District that President Donald Trump carried by 12 points.

In the Senate, Cook rates U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody Likely Republican, matching the Crystal Ball. Six seats are Toss-Ups, all Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. The open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are Lean Democratic. Georgia and the open North Carolina seat are Likely Democratic. The last change in Cook’s final Senate ratings was Michigan’s open seat, now Lean Democratic.

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball closed the cycle with Democrats favored to take the House, the Senate, and a majority of governorships, Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman write in their final 2026 ratings.

The count: 239 House seats at least leaning Democratic to 196 Republican, 53 Senate seats to 47, and 28 governorships to 22.

The Florida Governor’s race stays at Leans Republican, but the authors say Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Phil Scott of Vermont are Republican spots that look “very shaky based on late polls.” If their ratings end up light for Democrats, they write, it is likeliest in the gubernatorial column.

U.S. Sen. Moody’s seat is rated Likely Republican, up from Safe Republican last week.

The final update moved four Florida House seats, all toward Democrats. Castor’s seat in Florida’s 14th Congressional District and the new CD 22 went from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic. U.S. Rep. Soto’s CD 9 and the open CD 7 went from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

That leaves three Florida seats at Leans Democratic: Castor, U.S. Rep. Moskowitz in CD 25, and CD 22. Four sit at Leans Republican: U.S. Reps. Luna in CD 13 and Salazar in CD 27, Soto, and the open CD 7. U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis in CD 12 and the open CD 16 are Likely Republican. The rest of the delegation is rated Safe for the incumbent party.

CD 9, CD 14, CD 22, and CD 25 are the four seats the new map was drawn to flip. Three now lean Democratic.

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What I will be watching — Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza are teaming up with Decision Desk HQ to host “The Projection,” a live Election Night broadcast, Axios’ Sara Fischer reports. I’ll be watching.

The show starts streaming at 6 p.m. Nov. 3 on YouTube, X, Substack, DDHQ’s Votes portal, and the Noosphere app. The invitation-only in-person event will take place at a downtown Washington pub. Kalshi and Noosphere are presenting.

*Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza bring their own Election Night calls with ‘The Projection’.*

DDHQ analysts will make their own race calls and announce them on air as results come in. Viewers will see those calls at the same time as DDHQ’s other media partners.

“On ‘The Projection,’ the data and projections are ours, and we make them first,” DDHQ co-founder Scott Tranter said in a statement.

Todd, Tranter, Cillizza, and Cillizza’s wife, Gia, co-founded Decision Made Productions to cover the 2026 Midterms. They plan to turn “The Projection” into a daily show in early 2027.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

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—@ByronDonalds: To the folks affected by this historic rainfall and subsequent flooding: 1. Above all else, stay safe. First responders are working hard to locate people in need and state resources are being deployed thanks to Governor @RonDeSantis. Follow @FLSERT for updates. 2. If you live in the following counties, there may have been changes to your voting locations for tomorrow: Brevard, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie. Please check your local county supervisor websites for information and make a plan to vote.

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