From:
Extensive Media Enterprises Early voting begins across all 67 Florida counties today, but nearly 2 million voters have already beaten the rush. As of Friday morning, registered Democrats accounted for 40.6% of ballots cast, compared with 38.9% from Republicans, giving Democrats a 34,839-ballot advantage before early voting becomes available statewide. Third- and no-party voters cast the remaining 20.5%. While the real scoreboard stays dark until after polls close Nov. 3, the tea leaves already suggest voter participation has slowed from four years ago, and the partisan balance has shifted toward Democrats. By this point in the 2022 cycle, 2.17 million Floridians had voted — 190,440 more than this year — despite nearly 800,000 more voters on the rolls. As a share of the electorate, participation is nearly even: 14.47% vs. 14.98% in 2022. The partisan movement is far more pronounced — four years ago, Republicans held a 30,590-ballot advantage at this stage. Democrats did not build a larger vote-by-mail firewall. Their current mail advantage is about 85,000 ballots, almost identical to the 87,000-ballot cushion they held at the comparable point in 2022. The difference is what happened next. By that Friday morning four years ago, Republicans had amassed a 118,000-vote advantage in early in-person voting, more than enough to wipe away the Democratic mail lead. Their early voting advantage this year is about 50,000. 
Early voting officially starts in all Florida counties today. That would be notable in an unchanged electorate, but Florida’s electorate has, of course, changed. Republicans entered this election with a 1.54 million-voter advantage over Democrats. Four years ago, they led by about 306,000. Much of the topline shift is attributable to a 16.6% drop in registered Democrats, though the Republican ranks have grown somewhat. Yet Democratic ballots are down only 6.9% compared to this point in the 2022 cycle, while Republican ballots are down 14%, despite the party’s substantially larger roster. Put another way, 19.4% of Florida’s active registered Democrats have already voted. Just 13.6% of Republicans have. The gap also follows election law changes that shortened the life of mail-ballot requests, a move widely expected to further disadvantage Democrats. Yet they rebuilt essentially the same mail firewall, while Republicans have not matched the early in-person advantage that erased it four years ago. That may be all the tea leaves can tell us for now. Statewide early voting could quickly change the picture, and Republicans still have 10 days to turn their overwhelming numerical advantage into ballots. Some Republicans warn that it may be a tough task, including U.S. Rep. Kat Cammack, who this week said “… enthusiasm, it’s down. I see it. I think anyone who doesn’t acknowledge that isn’t being truthful.” Perhaps Republican voters will arrive later. Florida Democrats spent two decades saying the same thing. ___ Coming up, the usual assortment of news, intel, and observations from the week that was in Florida's capital city by Peter Schorsch, Drew Wilson, Drew Dixon, Liam Fineout and the staff of Florida Politics. But first, the "Takeaway 5" — the Top 5 stories from the week that was: |
|
|
| |
Take 5 |
|
Making it rain — President Donald Trump rallied Republicans in Fort Myers Friday as his political operation poured more than $25 million into the closing fight for the U.S. House. In Florida, the largest check reverses House Republicans’ retreat from CD 25: No Going Back PAC booked $6.3 million in ads opposing Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, almost immediately after the Congressional Leadership Fund canceled a flight of the same size. Trump’s operation is also buying airtime in CD 13, where Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna faces Democrat Leela Gray. Still airing — Florida Republicans’ effort to pull a Hope Florida attack ad hit a procedural stop this week. Highlands County Circuit Judge Peter Estrada declined to block the spot before hearing from the defendants, directing Republicans to serve the lawsuit and schedule a hearing. The order did not decide whether the ad could legally air. Republicans argue the spot improperly relies on an expunged grand jury report about $10 million routed through the Hope Florida Foundation into the fight against marijuana legalization. The grand jury returned no indictments, and an appellate court ruled the money was never public money. Democrats responded with a new ad targeting Attorney General Uthmeier and U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody. Hard no — Senate President Ben Albritton will vote against the property tax amendment his own chamber helped put on the ballot. The Wauchula Republican presided over the Senate’s 30-9 vote to advance Amendment 3, but now warns it could eliminate up to 30% of rural counties’ resources, threatening law enforcement, emergency response and infrastructure. That is a turn from May, when he promoted the plan as tax relief that would safeguard public safety funding. Albritton joins former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo and major law enforcement organizations in opposition. He says next year’s Taxation and Budget Reform Commission offers a better venue for reform. Gov. Ron DeSantis says he will vote yes but will not campaign for it. Still close — Moody led Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon 47% to 43%, with 9% undecided, in the University of North Florida’s latest poll, cutting her July advantage in half. Nixon led third- and no-party voters 50% to 35%, but a turnout model giving Republicans a 12-point advantage kept Moody ahead. The Governor’s race was tighter: Donalds led Jolly 45% to 44% among decided voters, or 49% to 47% with leaners included. Both gubernatorial margins were within the survey’s margin of error. The Oct. 12-19 poll surveyed 1,471 likely Florida voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points. Big Dog — Florida’s presidential traffic wasn’t all Republican. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for David Jolly and running mate Gwen Graham at a South Florida interfaith event Tuesday, making a pocketbook argument for changing the state’s leadership. Clinton questioned whether Florida’s prosperity was reaching families facing rising rents and whether longtime residents could afford to stay. He also challenged Byron Donalds for removing Trump references from his website and praised Jolly for being willing to listen. The appearance also came with financial help: Jolly’s campaign reported a $3 million haul from a fundraiser with Clinton, while the Democratic Governors Association is putting $1 million behind the Democratic nominee. |
|
 |
|
| |
HOFer gets more bling |
|
Just in time for the Fall Classic. This week DeSantis awarded Major League Baseball (MLB) Hall of Famer Andre “The Hawk” Dawson the Governor’s Medal of Freedom in recognition of his distinguished baseball career, his contributions to Florida A&M University (FAMU) and, of course, his lasting impact on America’s pastime and the state of Florida. “Today, I was proud to present the Governor’s Medal of Freedom to Baseball Hall of Famer and great Floridian Andre Dawson. His distinguished career in Major League Baseball, his contributions to the sport, and his lasting impact on our state have earned him this award. ‘The Hawk’ has represented Florida in the best possible way for decades. His generous support of FAMU and its baseball program has helped generations of student-athletes succeed. The Governor’s Medal of Freedom is the highest honor I can bestow on any Floridian, and Andre Dawson truly deserves this recognition,” DeSantis said. Dawson was born and raised in Miami and was a standout athlete at Southwest Miami Senior High School. After going unrecruited, he took out loans to attend FAMU and walked onto the Rattlers’ baseball team. 
Andre Dawson added another award to the trophy case. After dominating in college, the Montreal Expos (now the Washington Nationals) selected him in the 1975 draft. Dawson debuted in MLB in 1976 and earned National League (NL) Rookie of the Year honors in 1977. Over his 21-year career, he brought power at the plate and top-notch defense to the Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and Florida Marlins, earning eight All-Star selections, eight Gold Glove Awards and four Silver Slugger Awards. His highlight year came in 1987 with the Cubs, when he hit 49 home runs and drove in 137 runs, earning NL MVP honors. Impressive numbers then and now. When Dawson decided to hang it up, he had amassed 438 home runs, 2,774 hits, 1,591 runs batted in and 314 stolen bases. In 2010, he was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York — which many considered the hardest HOF to make it into. Dawson also gave back to FAMU, helping support the baseball team while advancing opportunities for student-athletes at Historically Black Colleges and Universities. In 2018, MLB renamed its HBCU baseball event the Andre Dawson Classic. All we can say here at Florida Politics is one word — deserved. Now let’s enjoy this Brewers vs. Rays World Series (a ringless team is finally taking one home!). |
|
|
| |
Drugs dropping |
|
The numbers are in, and they are looking good. This week, while in Orlando, DeSantis announced that fentanyl-caused deaths in Florida have declined by nearly 60% since 2023, according to new data from the Florida Medical Examiners Commission’s “2025 Annual Drug Report.” The decrease comes as Florida continues to support local law enforcement through the State Assistance for Fentanyl Eradication (S.A.F.E.) grant program, which was created in 2023. “Fentanyl-caused deaths in Florida have declined by nearly 60% since we launched the S.A.F.E. grant program in 2023. So far, S.A.F.E. has resulted in almost 3,000 arrests of drug traffickers and dealers, as well as significant seizures of dangerous narcotics. We will continue supporting law enforcement and remain committed to protecting the health, safety, and well-being of Floridians,” DeSantis said. 
The number is going in the right direction. In 2023, fentanyl was associated with 5,000 deaths in Florida. Two years later, that figure had dropped to 2,000. From 2024 to 2025 alone, fentanyl-caused deaths declined 37%, while deaths caused by fentanyl analogs declined more than 50%. “Our agents and partners are working every day to disrupt the flow of fentanyl and other deadly drugs into our communities,” said FDLE Commissioner Larry Keefe. “This progress is a direct result of their commitment and the Governor’s continued support for programs like S.A.F.E., which empower law enforcement to act quickly and effectively. We will keep using every lawful tool available to protect Florida families.” |
|
 |
|
| |
Esto me suena |
|
Attorney General James Uthmeier has announced a state arrest warrant for former Cuban President Raúl Castro, charging him with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder. Castro is accused of ordering the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes. “It was not an accident what happened,” Uthmeier said at a news conference at Florida International University. “It was murder. The evidence made it abundantly clear.” 11th Judicial Circuit Chief Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan signed the no-bond warrant. It follows a federal indictment against Castro unsealed in May. On Feb. 24, 1996, Cuban fighter jets shot down two unarmed Cessnas flown by Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based exile group that searched for Cuban rafters at sea. All four men aboard were killed: Armando Alejandre Jr., Carlos Costa, Mario de la Peña and Pablo Morales. All but Morales were U.S. citizens. 
Raúl Castro faces additional charges. A third plane, carrying the group’s leader, escaped. U.S. prosecutors say the planes were over international waters when they were shot down. Cuba has long maintained that the group repeatedly violated its airspace and that it acted to defend its sovereignty. Castro, now 95, was Cuba’s Defense Minister at the time. Last year, Uthmeier directed his Office of Statewide Prosecution to reopen the state’s investigation. “Raúl Castro ordered the murder of four Floridians in cold blood, and Florida will never stop pursuing accountability for that communist conspiracy,” Uthmeier said. “The Castro regime’s spies operated in our communities, fed intelligence to Havana, and helped put civilian pilots in the crosshairs of Cuban MiGs.” |
|
|
| |
Claims of interference |
|
Uthmeier is investigating a homeowners insurance agency to determine whether it violated rules for insurance adjusters. Uthmeier issued a subpoena to Velocity Risk officials for documents. Uthmeier said he’s looking into possibly illegal agreements that restrict homeowners from hiring licensed public insurance adjusters. Uthmeier said that while the subpoena targets Velocity, the investigation seeks to determine whether the company colluded with other agencies. “Florida homeowners — especially those rebuilding after a hurricane — should have a fair chance to get the full value of their claim,” Uthmeier said in a news release this week. “We are looking into whether Velocity and other insurance companies worked together to ban public adjusters so they could pay out less money. Insurance companies use their own adjusters. Homeowners should be allowed to hire an advocate on their side, too.”  No need to call an adjuster; this place looks move-in ready! The probe is centered on what’s known as “anti-public adjuster” clauses. Those clauses essentially force homeowners to agree not to hire public adjusters for work they need after property-loss claims. If a homeowner hires a public adjuster, the insurance agency can reject the entire claim. Public insurance adjusters rail against the clauses, claiming they undermine legislation that lets independent public adjusters provide the help homeowners need, especially after a natural disaster. Uthmeier acknowledged some homes are harder to insure than others, especially beachfront properties and houses with older roofs, according to the release. Those homes are often covered by “surplus lines” policies, which face less state regulation than standard policies. After storm damage, many of those homeowners hire licensed public adjusters, who work only for the homeowner, not the insurance company. Surplus lines are special coverage conditions for high-risk properties. Independent public adjusters estimate repair costs and act as a conduit between homeowners and insurance companies. The news release said homeowners who use public adjusters can receive up to 30% more on property-damage claims than those who do not. |
|
 |
|
| |
Instagram of the Week |
|
 |
|
|
| |
Mayoral fraud |
|
Kiss that money goodbye. On Wednesday, CFO Blaise Ingoglia and Attorney General Uthmeier announced the arrest of Kissimmee Mayor Jackie Espinosa on charges of grand theft and scheme to defraud. The arrest followed a joint investigation by the Department of Financial Services Criminal Investigations Division (CID) and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Office of Executive Investigations into improper influence in the awarding of COVID grant funds. “The voters put their trust in their public officials to do what is best for their community, not what is best for themselves. Jackie Espinosa abused that trust and cashed in at the taxpayers’ expense. Public service is called that for a reason, not self-service. When I took office, I promised I would root out waste, fraud, abuse, and corruption, and today I am fulfilling that promise for the people of Kissimmee,” Ingoglia said. The criminal investigation into Espinosa followed a routine Department of Financial Services (DFS) audit of how local governments used grants and COVID-related funds. The audit determined that Espinosa may have used her official position as Mayor of Kissimmee to influence the award of funds distributed through the Business Boost 2.0 grant program. That’s when DFS CID found that seven businesses in properties owned or managed by members of Espinosa’s family received a combined $90,000 in grant funds—$50,000 to Espinosa’s businesses and $40,000 to tenants in Espinosa’s buildings. 
Jackie Espinosa has some explaining to do. DFS CID Director Luis Negrete went on to make a criminal referral to the FDLE Office of Executive Investigations, the Florida Commission on Ethics, and the Special Prosecutor appointed to oversee an ethics complaint against the Mayor, which was requested by the Kissimmee City Commission. “Public officials do not get to write the rules and then write themselves a check. The Mayor used her position to push a COVID relief grant program, then took $50,000 from it for her family’s businesses after being warned it was prohibited. Florida taxpayers funded that money to help small businesses recover, not to enrich the Mayor who controlled it,” Uthmeier said. The FDLE Office of Executive Investigations conducted the criminal investigation into the grant-fund award, with assistance from the DFS CID. Uthmeier and the Office of the Statewide Prosecutor have filed criminal charges against Espinosa for grand theft ($20,000 or more but less than $100,000), a second-degree felony, and scheme to defraud ($50,000 or more), a first-degree felony. “Today’s arrest shows exactly why accountability matters. The Department of Financial Services found the case through rigorous audits, and FDLE matched that diligence with a thorough, uncompromising investigation. We appreciate CFO Ingoglia’s commitment to safeguarding taxpayer dollars and Attorney General Uthmeier’s leadership in prioritizing public integrity across this state. Public office is a responsibility, not an opportunity for personal gain. When that trust is violated, FDLE will use every available resource to investigate. Government must protect the people and their trust, and every public official in this state will be held to the law they swore to uphold,” stated FDLE Commissioner Keefe. TO SEE MORE TAKAWAYS FROM TALLAHASSEE CLICK HERE | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.