Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.20.26 — Burnin’ today: Donalds & Jolly, Moody & Nixon, Trump, Uthmeier, Early Voting, AI & the Sopranos

Everything you need to know about Florida politics before your second cup. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

From: Extensive Media Enterprises Good Tuesday morning. The Florida Chamber Foundation is assembling a cross-section of Florida’s political, business and education establishment for its annual Future of Florida Forum next week. U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, Attorney General James Uthmeier and Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky are among the featured speakers scheduled for the two-day event, set for Oct. 27-28 at the JW Marriott Orlando Bonnet Creek. The 2026 Future of Florida Forum and Florida Chamber Annual Meeting will examine Florida’s progress toward the 39 goals included in the Chamber’s Florida 2030 Blueprint. Those include the organization’s overarching goal of making Florida one of the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030. Florida’s business and political leaders will meet at the Florida Chamber’s annual forum to chart the state’s economic future. Scott is slated to discuss affordability, economic growth and policies intended to make the “American Dream” more attainable. Uthmeier will join Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods to discuss public safety, while Yaworsky will address competition and costs in Florida’s property and auto insurance markets. Other panels will examine some of the state’s most consequential growth questions. Tampa Electric President and CEO Archie Collins and Florida Digital Infrastructure and Security Alliance Executive Director Imran Siddiqi will discuss data centers and Florida’s expanding digital infrastructure. Tampa General Hospital President and CEO John Couris and Palantir Technologies executive Ted Mabrey will detail the companies’ partnership and how it applies to patient care. The education and workforce program includes Florida Education Commissioner Henry Mack, Disney executive Tajiana Ancora-Brown, Valencia College President Kathleen Plinske and University of Central Florida President Alex Cartwright. Additional discussions will cover Florida’s space industry, life sciences, local permitting and the state’s targeted industries. Registration remains open for in-person and virtual attendance.

Situational awareness   —@MuseeLouvre: 🌍 Dear visitors, due to student strikes, the museum is currently closed. We apologize for the inconvenience. —@umichvoter: Big early voting partisan shifts across Florida. The largest is in Jefferson, which is moving from 🔴 R+31 in the 14-day duration of 2024 EV to 🔴 R+9 on Day 1 of 2026 voting —@BrenanMeyer: With the lunch rush over, Dems continue to put up high EV numbers. Reps have made little headway in reducing the Dems' 50,000-vote lead from the mail-only period. Dems retain a 47,000-vote lead. Dems have slipped from +6 to +4.7, but that's a much slower decline than expected. Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: —@Meredithllee: In GOP ad spending news, the NRCC is going up with its first coordinated ad buy with Anna Paulina Luna in #FL13, per @AdImpact_Pol. (President Donald) Trump +13 District. TV buy is $324,895 and starts 10/21. —@TheFlaBar: The Florida Bar is aware of messages that were possibly sent from an employee’s social media account that contained inappropriate content, and we have started an internal investigation into this matter.

Days until   Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 1; FEC Pre-General Report due — 2; General Election ballot request deadline — 2; Mandatory General early voting begins — 4; Meta’s new political and issue ad freeze begins — 7; General Election — 14; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 17; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 17; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 22; 'Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol' starring Johnny Depp premieres — 24; 'Paper Tiger' starring Adam Driver premieres — 24; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 28; New legislator training sessions — 28; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 28; ‘Madden’ premieres — 29; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 31; 'Blade Runner 2099' premieres on Prime Video — 36; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 36; Committee Week #1 — 41; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 59; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 59; 'Six Kings Slam 2026' begins — 68; Committee Week #2 — 76; Committee Week #3 — 83; 'Ahsoka' season 2 premieres — 92; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 97; Committee Week #4 — 104; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 107; 'Remain,' directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 108; Grammys — 110; Committee Week #5 — 111; Super Bowl LXI — 117; Committee Week #6 — 118; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 133; Tampa Mayoral Election — 133; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 136; Jacksonville First Election — 140; Oscars — 145; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 156; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 156; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 176; Jacksonville General Election — 210; 'Star Wars: Starfighter' premieres — 220; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 241; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 269; 'The Bluey Movie' premieres — 290; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 325; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 423; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 459; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 461; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 469; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 476; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 483; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 486; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 490; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 497; Oscars — 502; 'X-Men' premieres — 563; ‘Miami Vice '85’ reboot premieres — 577; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 584; 'Days of Thunder' sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 591; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 605; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 633; 'Ghost Rider' premieres — 647; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 749; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 787; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 825; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,158; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,886.

Top story   “Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody lead Florida races despite Latino unease over ICE raids” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Republican Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 50% to 42% in Florida’s Governor’s race, according to a new N+ Univision/YouGov poll. Among Latino voters, however, Jolly leads 48% to 43%, highlighting divisions over immigration enforcement. Republicans also maintain advantages in other statewide contests. U.S. Sen. Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 9 percentage points, while Republicans hold a 5-point advantage in congressional races. Latino voters narrowly favor Democrats in both contests. David Jolly, Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon face a Florida electorate divided over immigration and affordability. Immigration enforcement remains contentious. Fifty-five percent of Latino respondents believe ICE operations have gone too far, including majorities of Cuban, Puerto Rican and South American voters. Forty-one percent worry they or someone close could be affected by enforcement actions. Despite those concerns, loyalty to Republicans remains strong. Among Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024, 84% now back Donalds. Cuban voters favor Donalds 51% to 42%, while Puerto Rican voters prefer Jolly 51% to 35%. Economic dissatisfaction presents another challenge for Republicans. Statewide, 63% disapprove of Trump's handling of living expenses, 68% disapprove of gasoline prices, and 57% believe the economy is worsening. Latino respondents express even greater dissatisfaction. YouGov surveyed 825 registered Florida voters and 937 registered Latino voters Oct. 2-15. Both samples carry margins of error of approximately 4 percentage points. The findings suggest Democrats have openings on immigration and affordability, but Republicans retain significant electoral advantages heading into November.

Nat'l mood   “Donald Trump approval sinks as voters express growing Midterm frustration” via Jason Lange of Reuters — Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 31%, its lowest level in either term, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday. Among registered voters, 47% favor Democrats for Congress, compared with 35% backing Republicans, a wider gap than two weeks earlier. Women favor Democratic candidates 50% to 32%, while men also lean Democratic by a narrower margin. Economic dissatisfaction dominates the findings: 68% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, including 37% of Republicans. Respondents trust Democrats over Republicans on economic stewardship, 40% to 33%. The survey questioned 1,679 adults, including 1,279 registered voters. National polling measures broad sentiment, not individual congressional contests, where local candidates and District boundaries will determine November’s results. Florida voters will also choose representatives. Donald Trump’s approval rating takes another hit with voters heading toward the Midterm Elections. “Voters voice economic anxiety as Midterms approach in new poll” via Emily Guskin of ABC News — An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds widespread dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the country’s direction ahead of November’s Midterms. Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% on the congressional ballot, while independents favor Democrats 56% to 35%. Seventy-two percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Gasoline is unaffordable to 71%, groceries to 60% and healthcare to 65%. Trump receives 33% job approval among adults, while 66% disapprove. Democratic voters report greater certainty about casting ballots than Republicans, 72% to 65%. The survey interviewed 2,545 adults Oct. 9-13. Its national findings offer a snapshot of public opinion, rather than results for specific House districts. Florida voters face competitive congressional races across Florida. “New poll finds Asian American voters souring on Trump’s economy” via Terry Tang, Nancy Jiang and Linley Sanders of The Associated Press — Democrats hold a growing advantage among Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults as economic concerns dominate the approaching Midterm Elections, according to a new AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll. Roughly one-quarter of respondents approve of Trump’s overall job performance, while about one in five approves of his handling of the economy. Respondents identified economic issues as a leading election concern and expressed greater trust in Democrats on healthcare and immigration. The findings suggest a potential challenge for Republicans seeking support among diverse communities in competitive congressional districts. Still, Democratic enthusiasm is not universal: nearly half of respondents view the party unfavorably. The survey also found substantial concerns about misinformation, voting access and election integrity in Florida and elsewhere.

2026   “Money vs. momentum drives Florida Senate race between Moody, Angie Nixon” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — While Nixon has crisscrossed the state, using live appearances to appeal to a broad coalition of Florida voters, Moody has run a nearly invisible campaign, avoiding large rallies and unscripted gaggles with the media. The contrasts between them are sharp in both style and substance, and the race may come down to money versus momentum. “I think Ashley has run a great campaign,” said Brian Ballard, one of the nation's most powerful lobbyists. Nixon is reaching out to a broad swath of voters, from Black women like herself to residents of mostly rural, White counties to Hispanic communities, building a coalition among working-class residents, noted Sharon Wright Austin, a political science professor at the University of Florida. “’Repeal the Big B.S. Bill’: Nixon meets with local AAPI leaders” via Chris Gorman of WMNF — Nixon joined members of Tampa Bay’s Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community for a leadership roundtable at the Queer Asian Museum in St. Petersburg, discussing voter engagement, political representation, nonprofit funding, and economic challenges. The discussion opened with May Thach, a Cambodian American candidate for state Representative, who emphasized the importance of Asian American representation in government and the challenges of increasing voter participation. Alex Quinto of Equality Florida highlighted the importance of visibility, while Thach discussed language barriers and the lack of political outreach to Asian American communities. Nixon outlined her opposition to “The Big Beautiful Bill,” which she called the “Big B.S. Bill,” arguing that federal cuts have eliminated programs that support individuals and community organizations. Angie Nixon connects with Tampa Bay’s Asian American community to discuss representation, economic challenges and voter engagement. TO SEEMORE SUNBURN CLICK HERE