Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.23.26

 

An espresso shot of Florida politics

From: Extensive Media Enterprises

Good Friday morning.

With the clock winding down and the game on the line, Florida Republicans are calling a familiar play: Alstott up the gut.

President Donald Trump is swinging through the Sunshine State and is scheduled to speak at 2 p.m. at Alico Arena on Florida Gulf Coast University’s Fort Myers campus, where Bucs legend Mike Alstott will join him in trying to jolt GOP voters.

Mike Alstott brings fullback energy to the campaign trail. Image via the Tampa Bay Times.

The Southwest Florida stop brings Trump to the home turf of U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who rode the President’s endorsement to the Republican nomination but now faces a closer-than-expected race to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis, under whom Florida has gone from a perennial battleground to a GOP stronghold.

Depending on the poll, the Governor’s race is either a nail-biter or Donalds has about a touchdown’s worth of breathing room against Democratic nominee David Jolly. Either scenario is a far cry from 2022, when DeSantis cruised to a 20-point win, and Republicans won supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature.

The visit also aligns with a late Trump-backed spending spree for the U.S. House, including a seven-figure flight aimed at Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz and smaller sums to boost Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and CD 16 Republican nominee Sydney Gruters.

The artillery support is surely welcome. It’s less clear whether the President flying down to deliver it personally helps — the same polls showing tight matchups at the top of the ballot indicate Trump is underwater in his adopted home state.

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Tony Carvajal is returning to a familiar post as executive vice president of the Florida Chamber Foundation.

The Foundation announced Carvajal’s hiring Friday following a national search. He will help guide its research, strategic initiatives and statewide partnerships while advancing the Florida 2030 Blueprint and helping develop its successor, the Florida 2040 Blueprint.

Carvajal previously served as the Foundation’s executive vice president for a decade. During that tenure, he helped develop the strategy and partnerships behind the launch of The Florida Scorecard and the Florida 2030 Blueprint. He also worked on the Florida Prosperity Initiative, the Florida Business Alliance for Early Learning and the creation of the Future of Florida Forum.

Tony Carvajal returns to the Florida Chamber Foundation for another round of big-picture planning.

“Tony understands how to take a big vision and turn it into a strategy that people can actually use and participate in,” Florida Chamber of Commerce and Foundation President and CEO Mark Wilson said. “He helped lay the groundwork for some of our most important research and long-term planning, and he now returns with even more experience and perspective.”

Carvajal returns after serving as president and CEO of The Able Trust, executive vice president of Florida TaxWatch and, most recently, CEO and executive director of the Association of Florida Colleges. In that role, he worked with Florida’s 28 state colleges and the Florida College System Council of Presidents.

“I’m excited to return to the Florida Chamber Foundation and help advance the mission of building a stronger, more competitive Florida,” Carvajal said. “Our opportunity now is to build on that momentum, use research and data to drive meaningful results, and help ensure that Florida’s growth creates greater prosperity and opportunity for all Floridians.”

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@RealDonaldTrump: While listening to our National Anthem, LeBron James disrespects our Country! I said right from the beginning that he’s no good, a TOTAL DISGRACE. LeBron James should apologize to all of those Great American Warriors and Heroes who died for the American Flag and all that our Country stands for!

—@RealDonaldTrump: The Horse-drawn Carriage in New York City is a quintessential New York experience. So sad that, for political reasons, we will see it go!

—@elwasson: OVERNIGHT: @SpeakerMcCarthy on Bloomberg TV in Singapore predicted GOP will lose the House. Blames new GOP leaders for keeping House out of Session and working too

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—@Meyer0656: Republicans are having a great day here in Florida. Eleven red counties began early voting today, including Collier, Marion, Citrus and Hernando. GOP is down 3k VBM, but up 22k IPEV. Democrats have been showing up mornings and evenings this cycle. Currently D+35,000

—@UMichvoter: Polk County is seeing the biggest shift among in-person early voting in Florida in the first four days of IPEV: 18-point shift 2024: R+21.4 2026: R+3.6

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— DAYS UNTIL —

Mandatory General early voting begins — 1; Meta’s new political and issue ad freeze begins — 4; General Election — 11; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 14; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 14; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 19; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ starring Johnny Depp premieres — 21; ‘Paper Tiger’ starring Adam Driver premieres — 21; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 25; New legislator training sessions — 25; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 25; ‘Madden’ premieres — 26; ‘I PLAY ROCKY’ premieres — 28; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 28; ‘Blade Runner 2099’ premieres on Prime Video — 33; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 33; Committee Week #1 — 38; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 56; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 56; ‘Six Kings Slam 2026’ begins — 65; Committee Week #2 — 73; Committee Week #3 — 80; ‘Ahsoka’ season 2 premieres — 89; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 94; Committee Week #4 — 101; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 104; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 105; Grammys — 107; Committee Week #5 — 108; Super Bowl LXI — 114; Committee Week #6 — 115; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 130; Tampa Mayoral Election — 130; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 133; Jacksonville First Election — 137; Oscars — 142; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 153; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 153; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 173; Jacksonville General Election — 207; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ premieres — 217; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 238; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 266; ‘The Bluey Movie’ premieres — 287; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 322; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 420; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 456; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 458; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 466; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 473; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 480; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 483; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 487; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 494; Oscars — 499; ‘X-Men’ premieres — 560; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ reboot premieres — 574; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 581; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 588; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 602; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 630; ‘Ghost Rider’ premieres — 644; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 746; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 784; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 822; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,155; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,883.

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