Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.29.26

 

Sunburn shines a light on what's driving Florida politics today

From: Extensive Media Enterprises

Good Thursday morning.

It’s that time of year again, fellow politicos. The ads are cut. The slots are bought. The mail is in the box. Voters are casting their ballots, and all that’s left is to celebrate, win or lose, the hard-fought battles that brought us to one of the most consequential Election Days of our generation.

Election night watch parties put Florida’s political faithful on the edge of their seats.

That means we need to hear from you. Where will you watch the results roll in on election night? Who will be joining you? Will you watch in public or celebrate in private with friends and family?

Whatever your plans are this Nov. 3, we’d love to include them in our traditional After Party rundown. Send your info to Peter@FloridaPolitics.com, and best of luck to everyone!

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St. Pete Polls has Republicans ahead in all four statewide races it tested this week, on a sample weighted 12 points more Republican than Democratic. The ballots returned through Tuesday morning are less than a point apart.

Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 48%-46% for Governor, after 44%-43% in September and 45%-45% in October. Reweighing the same responses to an R+10 electorate makes it 47%-46%. At the registration split, which runs R+8, Jolly is up a point.

Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon face a final statewide test at the polls.

Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 49%-45% for U.S. Senate, after a tie in September and 47%-45% in October. Her lead holds at R+10 (48%-45%) and, at the registration split, 47%-46%.

James Uthmeier leads José Javier Rodríguez 49%-44% for Attorney General, and Blaise Ingoglia leads Annette Taddeo 47%-43% for CFO. At registration, those are 47%-46% and a 45%-45% tie.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they had already voted. Every Democrat leads that group: Jolly 58%-38%, Nixon 56%-41%, Rodríguez 56%-41%, Taddeo 55%-39%. Every Republican leads the 54% who have not voted yet by 20 points or more.

Amendment 3, the $250,000 homestead exemption, has 44% support, 39% opposition, and 17% undecided. It needs 60%. Opposition has risen 9 points since September, and voters who have already cast ballots oppose it 45% to 40%.

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TSG Advisors has hired Leah Missildine, the former Executive Director of the Alabama 9-1-1 Board, as vice president of Strategy and Enterprise Services in its public safety practice. She starts Nov. 1.

TSG Advisors is The Southern Group’s consulting affiliate, launched in 2023 with practices in education, public safety, and, as of this year, transportation.

Leah Missildine brings emergency communications expertise to TSG Advisors’ public safety practice.

Missildine joined the Alabama 9-1-1 Board in 2013 after 15 years running the City of Auburn’s Public Safety Communications Division and went on to lead it. The firm credits her with helping make Alabama a model for how states modernize 9-1-1 service. Her national work includes the NG911 Institute, the National Association of State 9-1-1 Administrators, the FCC’s Communications Security, Reliability, and Interoperability Council, the FCC’s Ending 9-1-1 Fee Diversion Now Strike Force, and the Recommended Minimum Training Guidelines for Public Safety Telecommunicators.

At TSG Advisors, she will advise governments, public safety agencies, and technology partners on emergency communications strategy, multi-agency coordination, procurement, and long-term funding.

“Leah Missildine is a true force when it comes to public safety,” said Jason Fuqua, Managing Principal of the firm’s public safety practice.

“I am energized to roll up my sleeves alongside this dedicated team to drive innovation and provide dependable, long-term support for public safety leaders,” Missildine said.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

—@JoshWeirbach: In 2020, (President Joe) Biden won Palm Beach by 12.7%, and in 2024, Harris won it by .7%. That’s a 12-point swing, so there are a lot of vote-switchers and first-time (President Donald) Trump voters there. Right now, Dems have a 13.24% turnout lead, and it’s growing. Real chance it’s over 15% by the end of EIP.

—@leonardkl: Was just chatting with some UCF Turning Point students who were following @AngieNixon proceeding. They’re still voting for Moody, but they said they have awe over Nixon campaign’s energy, that they don’t think the incumbent can match it.

—@MarcACaputo: We’ve reached the stage of campaign-trail presidential standup jokes about men’s asses and the Cheesecake Factory. It’s time to get this election over with

—@PeterSchorschFL: My liver cannot take any more campaigning, Halloweening, baseballing

—@Fineout: 1 day after FSU’s president sent letter to fans … FSU says Clemson game on Halloween will include “special pricing” on beer, drones, Peter Warrick tribute & fireworks/drones w playing of “Eastbound and Down” at start of 4th. No mention of “Seminole Wind” — cc @GovRonDeSantis

— DAYS UNTIL —

General Election — 5; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 8; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 8; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 13; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ starring Johnny Depp premieres — 15; ‘Paper Tiger’ starring Adam Driver premieres — 15; Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America,’ is released — 19; New legislator training sessions — 19; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 19; ‘Madden’ premieres — 20; ‘I PLAY ROCKY’ premieres — 22; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 22; ‘Blade Runner 2099’ premieres on Prime Video — 27; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 27; Committee Week #1 — 32; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 50; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 50; ‘Six Kings Slam 2026’ begins — 59; Committee Week #2 — 67; Committee Week #3 — 74; ‘Ahsoka’ season 2 premieres — 83; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 88; Committee Week #4 — 95; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 98; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 99; Grammys — 101; Committee Week #5 — 102; Super Bowl LXI — 108; Committee Week #6 — 109; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 124; Tampa Mayoral Election — 124; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 127; Jacksonville First Election — 131; Oscars — 136; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 147; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 147; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 167; Jacksonville General Election — 201; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ premieres — 211; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 232; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 260; ‘The Bluey Movie’ premieres — 281; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 316; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 414; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 450; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 452; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 460; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 467; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 474; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 477; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 481; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 488; Oscars — 493; ‘X-Men’ premieres — 554; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ reboot premieres — 568; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 575; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 582; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 596; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 624; ‘Ghost Rider’ premieres — 638; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 740; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 778; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 816; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,149; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,877.

— TOP STORY —

“Allison DeFoor, former Sheriff, priest and champion of Florida conservation, dies at 72” via Beth Reese Cravey of The Florida Times-Union — DeFoor, a seventh-generation Floridian whose extraordinary career spanned law enforcement, politics, environmental conservation and the Episcopal priesthood, died Oct. 27 after a lengthy battle with cancer. He was 72.

Born in Coral Gables and raised in Tampa, DeFoor earned degrees in law, criminology, geography and theology. He worked as a public defender and prosecutor, became Monroe County’s youngest county judge at 28 and was elected Sheriff in 1988.

Allison DeFoor leaves a legacy of conservation, public service and faith. Image via Donna Deegan/X.

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