Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.6.26 — Burnin’ today: Trump, Donalds & Jolly, DeSantis, Ingoglia, Alligator Alcatraz, AI & Medvedev

Sunburn puts you in the room where it happens. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Good Tuesday morning. Breaking late Monday — “Gulf disturbance gains steam, with coastal impacts still uncertain” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — A disturbance in the southwestern Gulf could become a tropical depression by midweek, prompting forecasters to urge northern Gulf Coast residents to monitor its progress. The National Hurricane Center’s Monday 8 p.m. outlook gives Invest 92L a 70% chance of developing within two days and an 80% chance within seven days. The broad low-pressure trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and is expected to drift east before turning north. Conditions are only marginally favorable, but gradual development appears increasingly likely. Forecasters say it's too early to determine specific coastal impacts, including in Florida. The system emerges during a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with El Niño helping suppress storm development through stronger upper-level winds. Hurricane season continues through Nov. 30. Invest 92L keeps Florida watching the Gulf and checking the forecast one more time. ___ Thirty days out, mail ballots are on kitchen counters from Pensacola to Key West, early voting opens later this month, and a cycle Republicans expected to sleepwalk through has turned into a list of questions. Read my column here about the seven I keep coming back to. Vote-by-mail season arrives, putting Florida’s political decisions right on the kitchen counter. ___ "Former Hamas hostages will tell their story in Tallahassee, at the invitation of 4 Process pros" — Ryan Cox, Karen Cyphers, Hope Hellman and Jared Ross, four familiar names from The Process, are bringing survivors of Hamas captivity to the Challenger Learning Center on Nov. 5. Two days after the polls close, Ohad and Raz Ben-Ami, who were dragged from their home in Kibbutz Be'eri by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, will appear at the Challenger Learning Center in downtown Tallahassee and tell a room full of Floridians what happened to them. Raz came home first, on Nov. 29, 2023, under the temporary ceasefire that Fall. She had been held for 54 days. Ohad was held for 491 days. The talk starts at 7 p.m. It is free and open to the public. Ohad Ben-Ami prepares to share a story of captivity, survival and freedom with Tallahassee.

Situational awareness   —@realDonaldTrump: The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They try to suppress the Vote, but I won all 7 Swing States, the Popular Vote, 86% of Counties, and 99% of Primaries this year. I AM ON THE BALLOT! President DONALD J. TRUMP —@Acyn: Trump on War/High Prices: It's just artificial. It's a little bit high. It's a small price to pay. They can take out a city. Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego … Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: —@EvanPower: The @FloridaGOP has been consistent on asking Mike Caruso to step aside. There has been no official endorsement; our team asked the Palm Beach GOP to take down its voter guide — they obliged. We renew our call for Mike Caruso to withdraw from the race Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet:

Days until   ‘The Social Reckoning,' with Jeremy Strong, Jeremy Allen White and Mikey Madison, premieres — 3; Associated Industries of Florida one-on-one conversations with five top-of-ticket Republicans — 6; 'VisionQuest' premieres — 8; 'The Diplomat' season 4 premieres — 9; Optional General early voting begins — 13; 'Six Kings Slam' on Netflix — 15; Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 15; General Election ballot request deadline — 16; Mandatory General early voting begins — 18; General Election — 28; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 31; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 31; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 36; 'Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol' starring Johnny Depp premieres — 38; 'Paper Tiger' starring Adam Driver premieres — 38; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 42; New legislator training sessions — 42; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 42; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 45; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres — 50; ‘Madden’ premieres — 51; Committee Week #1 — 55; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 73; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 73; Committee Week #2 — 90; Committee Week #3 — 97; 'Ahsoka' season 2 premieres — 106; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 111; Committee Week #4 — 118; Grammys — 124; Committee Week #5 — 125; 'Remain,' directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 131; Super Bowl LXI — 131; Committee Week #6 — 132; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 147; Tampa Mayoral Election — 147; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 150; Oscars — 159; Jacksonville First Election — 168; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 170; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 170; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 190; Jacksonville General Election — 224; 'Star Wars: Starfighter' premieres — 234; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 242; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 283; 'The Bluey Movie' premieres — 304; ‘Miami Vice’ reboot premieres — 304; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 339; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 437; 2028 South Carolina Presidential Primary — 473; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 475; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 483; 2028 New Hampshire Presidential Primary — 490; 2028 New Mexico Presidential Primary — 497; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 500; 2028 Michigan Presidential Primary — 504; 2028 Virginia Presidential Primary — 511; Oscars — 516; 'X-Men' premieres — 577; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 598; 'Days of Thunder' sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 605; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 619; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 647; 'Ghost Rider' premieres — 661; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 763; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 801; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 839; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,163; College Football Playoff national championship game in Miami — 1,203; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,894.

Top story   “Byron Donalds courts Black voters as Democrats defend their base” via Kimberly Leonard and Gary Fineout of POLITICO — Donalds is intensifying efforts to win Black voters as he seeks to become Florida’s first Black Governor, targeting a Democratic constituency that could help decide November’s contest against David Jolly. His campaign is combining relationship-building with endorsements, church visits, and advertising aimed at Black audiences. Gainesville Commissioner Cynthia Chestnut and Haines City Commissioner Anne Huffman, both Democrats, have endorsed Donalds. More than two dozen Black leaders joined his coalition Monday. His campaign hired former Trump outreach director Janiyah Thomas in May and has pursued meetings in barber shops and cigar bars. Byron Donalds takes his campaign message directly to Black voters in the race for Governor. The opportunity follows Trump’s gains among Florida’s Black voters, whose support increased from 10% in 2020 to 15% in 2024, according to exit polling. Black voters represented 11.4% of Florida’s electorate in 2024, making even modest shifts potentially significant. Democratic critics argue Donalds’ record undermines his outreach. They cite his opposition to stronger federal voting protections, defense of ending protections for Haitians and comments about Black families during Jim Crow. State Rep. LaVon Bracy Davis said representation requires more than shared racial identity. Jolly acknowledges Donalds’ personal story could resonate, but argues his policies better address affordability and civil rights. He has enlisted prominent Black advisers, including transition Chair Sean Pittman, and promised a civil rights office. Chestnut criticized his selection of Gwen Graham as his running mate. Donalds rejects Jolly’s accusation of an “anti-Black agenda,” emphasizing education, workforce development and insurance costs. Both campaigns are competing for voters whose preferences could test traditional partisan loyalties. TO SEE MORE  SUNBURN CLICK HERE