Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.21.26 — Burnin’ today: Donalds & Jolly, Hope Florida, Clinton, Moody & Nixon, Amendment 3, Castor, Bloomberg & the Rays

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From: Extensive Media Enterprises Good Wednesday morning. A new University of North Florida poll has the race for Governor inside the margin of error, with Republican Byron Donalds at 49% and Democrat David Jolly at 47%. Four percent are undecided. The Public Opinion Research Lab survey of 1,471 likely voters, conducted Oct. 12-19, shows the margin narrowing from July, when PORL had Donalds up five. Jolly leads among independents by 16 points, and 11% of registered Republicans say they will vote for him, compared with 5% of Democrats backing Donalds. Byron Donalds and David Jolly head toward Election Day in a Governor’s race too close for comfort. "Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising," said Sean Freeder, PORL faculty director and political science professor. In the Senate race, Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45%, down from an eight-point lead in July. Independents prefer Nixon by 15 points. Democratic messaging on the Hope Florida grand jury report made 30% of respondents less likely to vote for Moody, while Republican messaging on Nixon's ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made 25% less likely to vote for her. "Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor," Freeder said. Amendment 3 sits at 50% support, 10 points short of the 60% needed to pass, with 35% opposed and 14% undecided. Support is not cleanly partisan: 32% of Democrats say yes and 23% of Republicans say no. "Most of these voters would need to vote yes in order to put Amendment 3 above 60%, a challenging but possible outcome," Freeder said. The poll's margin of error is ±3 percentage points. —"Bill Clinton swing for David Jolly drives Fox News ratings change" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

Situational awareness   Tweet, tweet: —@Leonardkl: .@davidjollyfl, son of a pastor, gives passionate speech at interfaith service in Hollywood tonight, invoking various Scriptures. He's sticking to his appeal for unity, turning against brokenness. “We will never make America great again if we don’t first make America good again.” —@KKfla737: At the moment, the GOP early in-person advantage has grown to over 5k statewide. That has done little to diminish the Democrats' 50k+ VBM advantage. Again, GOP was assumed to offset D lead by this time YESTERDAY by me and MANY others. Still a long way from happening. Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet: —@JeffreyBrandes: Senate President Ben Albritton, who presided over the 30–9 vote to put Amendment 3 on the ballot, now says he’ll vote NO on Amendment 3. He warns rural counties could lose up to 30% of their resources, threatening law enforcement, emergency services, and infrastructure. I respect Ben and appreciate his willingness to speak candidly about the consequences. But perhaps this is exactly why the Legislature should have required comprehensive fiscal modeling and local impact analysis before putting it on the ballot. These questions deserved answers before the vote, not months afterward. —@Fineout: 2 weeks out before Election Day … a refresher for those new to state or who weren't here for previous recounts. Under Fla law there's an automatic recount if margin is 0.5% or less. If the margin is still 0.25% or less, there is a manual recount of undervotes/overvotes

Days until   FEC Pre-General Report due — 1; General Election ballot request deadline — 1; Mandatory General early voting begins — 3; Meta’s new political and issue ad freeze begins — 6; General Election — 13; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 16; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 16; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 21; 'Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol' starring Johnny Depp premieres — 23; 'Paper Tiger' starring Adam Driver premieres — 23; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 27; New legislator training sessions — 27; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 27; ‘Madden’ premieres — 28; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 30; 'Blade Runner 2099' premieres on Prime Video — 35; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 35; Committee Week #1 — 40; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 58; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 58; 'Six Kings Slam 2026' begins — 67; Committee Week #2 — 75; Committee Week #3 — 82; 'Ahsoka' season 2 premieres — 91; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 96; Committee Week #4 — 103; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 106; 'Remain,' directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 107; Grammys — 109; Committee Week #5 — 110; Super Bowl LXI — 116; Committee Week #6 — 117; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 132; Tampa Mayoral Election — 132; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 135; Jacksonville First Election — 139; Oscars — 144; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 155; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 155; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 175; Jacksonville General Election — 209; 'Star Wars: Starfighter' premieres — 219; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 240; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 268; 'The Bluey Movie' premieres — 289; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 324; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 422; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 458; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 460; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 468; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 475; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 482; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 485; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 489; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 496; Oscars — 501; 'X-Men' premieres — 562; ‘Miami Vice '85’ reboot premieres — 576; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 583; 'Days of Thunder' sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 590; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 604; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 632; 'Ghost Rider' premieres — 646; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 748; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 786; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 824; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,157; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,885.

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