The ramifications of resignations, retirements and redistricting came into focus on Tuesday, with voters delivering considerable consequences to Florida’s Capitol contingent. Most obviously, voters rejected the ambitions of two Florida lawmakers who won in the last two election cycles. The most closely watched upset of an incumbent came in Florida’s 7th Congressional District, where Republicans chose Ryan Elijah, a former FOX 35 news anchor, over Rep. Cory Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican rocked by personal scandal. 
Ryan Elijah turned the tables on Cory Mills, ending the incumbent’s run in Florida’s 7th Congressional District. Less discussed amid broader conversations about race, former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick also placed fourth in a five-person Democratic Primary in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, losing to delegation co-chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Both lawmakers seemed to be on solid political footing at the start of the 119th Congress. Cherfilus-McCormick had won re-election without opposition, and the most likely cause for change in CD 7 appeared to be Mills’ Senate ambitions. Now looking forward, they join five retiring delegation members who won’t be returning to the 120th Congress. The number is six if you count Marco Rubio, whose Senate seat will be on the ballot in November only because he vacated it to become Secretary of State. His appointed successor, Sen. Ashley Moody, easily won the Republican nomination on Tuesday to serve the last two years of that term. Meanwhile, she will face Democratic nominee Angie Nixon, who outhustled financial favorite Alex Vindman to secure a Primary win, raising questions about whether the statewide contest will truly be in play in the fall. A less-discussed consequence: the Primary outcome means Florida will elect a woman to the Senate in November for the first time in nearly half a century, since Republican Paula Hawkins’ historic victory in 1980. In totality, enormous change also sits on the delegation’s horizon. This was already a tumultuous Congress where three of 30 federal lawmakers in Florida resigned their seats, including Cherfilus-McCormick after a criminal indictment. There will already be three incumbents on the ballot — Moody and Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis — who weren’t seeking Washington jobs in the 2024 election cycle. Now add Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills to five retirements (Reps. Vern Buchanan, Byron Donalds, Neal Dunn, Daniel Webster and Frederica Wilson), and the House will have at minimum seven brand-new representatives from Florida in January. And that presumes 20 House incumbents on the ballot in November all win re-election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists nine Florida districts as battlegrounds, including five where they are on offense and four where the National Republican Campaign Committee hopes to flip blue seats red. The battlegrounds include two now-open seats with no incumbents on the November ballot: Mills’ seat and a newly drawn version of Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, where no sitting lawmakers chose to run. But every incumbent in Florida, sans Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost, will face a General Election opponent, and even in districts widely deemed non-competitive, challengers argue an angry electorate could deliver surprises. Mills was the 10th congressional incumbent to lose a Primary to a non-incumbent this cycle, a higher number than seen in more than a decade, according to Ballotpedia. So there may still be more change ahead. |
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