| With more than a year before qualifying, at least one potential significant challenger to Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan is testing the waters against the first-term Democrat. Political perennial Jerry Holland, a Republican who was elected without opposition to again be Duval County Elections Supervisor in 2023, has not been shy about saying he's looking at the race. And a new phone poll suggests he has a shot.  Jerry Holland's internal poll shows him competitive with Mayor Donna Deegan as 2027 approaches. The survey, commissioned for Holland last month by political consultant Matt Justice, shows Holland leading Deegan 47% to 41% in a head-to-head ballot test like the General Election would be. To get to that two-way contest, Holland and Deegan would have to clear a multi-candidate First Election, a blanket Primary in which all candidates compete and the top two advance unless one gets a majority of the vote. In that scenario, Justice's polling shows Deegan with 47% support, Holland with 29%, Jacksonville City Council member Ron Salem with 6%, and House Speaker Pro Tempore Wyman Duggan with 1%. The remaining 17% is up for grabs. Some will question the sample. While the First Election involved 418 responses, the General Election ballot test included just 160. In both cases, these "likely voters" either cast ballots in the 2023 Mayoral election or voted in 2022 and 2024 Party Primaries. The First Election poll has a +/- 5% margin of error, while the General Election survey has an MOE of +/- 8%. The results are also weighted to reflect the 2023 turnout model's slight GOP lean, with responses from Democrats removed to reflect that ratio. While some will question the poll's methodology, it nonetheless shows that a mayoral race will emerge. Mayor Deegan has already been gearing up, as evidenced by a recent fundraising uptick for her political Committee. Her "Duval for All" political committee has raised more than $1 million to date, including $643,150 in the quarter ending Sept. 30. No major candidate has confirmed plans to run against Deegan in 2027's Duval County Elections, though three political newcomers have filed officially. They don't look like they can compete with Deegan should they qualify next January for the First Election in March. Ronald Armstrong Jr. is the only one to report any financial activity, raising just over $20,000 and already spending more than $12,000 of that. The strongest fundraising of any potential opponent is from Rep. Duggan's Citizens For Building Florida's Future political committee, which closed September with roughly $780,000 on hand. Deegan defeated Republican Daniel Davis in 2023, despite a Republican turnout advantage. The GOP continues to make registration inroads, closing to within 5,000 voters of historically dominant Democrats. Holland has the deepest resume of any potential candidate. He will have served 14 years as Supervisor of Elections, eight years as Duval County Property Appraiser, and also as President of the Jacksonville City Council. Republicans have talked of an "invisible Primary" to consolidate support ahead of the election cycle against the still-popular Deegan, who took advantage of a fragmented GOP two years ago. What's clear is that Holland wants to be part of that conversation. |
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