Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.9.26 — Burnin’ today: Donalds & Jolly, Moody & Nixon, Amendment 3, Uthmeier, Seminole Tribe, DeSantis, data centers & DraftKings

Your morning must-read of the people and policy that make up Florida politics ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

From: Extensive Media Enterprises  Good Friday morning. A new St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics has every statewide race within the margin of error and Amendment 3 moving away from the 60% it needs to pass. The survey of 836 likely voters was conducted Oct. 5-7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Here are the top lines. Florida’s statewide races are headed for a photo finish, with pollsters offering sharply different snapshots. Governor: Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are tied at 45%, with 4% picking someone else and 7% undecided. A tenth of a point separates them before rounding, with Donalds on top. Both gained about a point since the pollster's mid-September survey, which had Donalds at 44% and Jolly at 43%. U.S. Senate: U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 47% to 45%, with 2% for someone else and 6% undecided. The September survey had them tied at 45%. Attorney General: James Uthmeier leads Democrat José Javier Rodríguez (45% to 43%), with 12% undecided. He was up 43% to 42% in September. CFO: Blaise Ingoglia leads Democrat Annette Taddeo 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided. St. Pete Polls had not tested the race before. Amendment 3: The $250,000 homestead exemption has 42% support, with 35% opposed and 23% undecided. It needs 60%. Support was 45% in September, and opposition was 30%. ___ If you don't like those numbers, here is another set. A new poll released overnight by The James Madison Institute has Republicans ahead by about 10 points in four statewide races and Amendment 3 above the 60% it needs. Donalds leads Jolly 52% to 42% for Governor, with 3% undecided. Moody leads Nixon 52% to 42% for U.S. Senate. Uthmeier leads Rodríguez 50% to 40% for Attorney General, and Wilton Simpson leads Joey Mendoza Atkins 50% to 39% for Agriculture Commissioner. The CFO race is the exception. Ingoglia and Taddeo are tied at 43% among likely voters, with 10% undecided. Among all registered voters, Ingoglia leads 40% to 38%. Blaise Ingoglia and Annette Taddeo find themselves in a tight contest for Florida’s next CFO. Amendment 3, the homestead exemption increase, has 63% support, with 21% opposed and 15% undecided. It draws 66% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 54% of independents. Amendment 2 is at 57%, and Amendment 1 is at 42%. Fuel prices and healthcare tied for the top issue at 36% each, followed by housing affordability at 30% and taxes and government spending at 29%. Eighty percent of voters say fuel prices have changed their household spending, and 39% say their finances are worse than a year ago, while 16% say they are better. After hearing a description, 78% of voters support requiring voter approval before a local government can raise total property tax revenue above an annual limit, including 83% of Republicans, 72% of Democrats, and 76% of independents. "Affordability remains top of mind, and voters are expressing strong views on property taxes, education, and important technology issues," said JMI President and CEO Robert McClure. ___ —"The Salt Shaker Test: Mason-Dixon's Byron Donalds-David Jolly poll leaves the shaker in the cupboard" via Steve Vancore of Florida Politics —"How political polling went astray and became a partisan tool" via John Pacenti of Palm Beach Daily News

Situational awareness   —@RealDonaldTrump: We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! —@atrupar: Q: How do you define socialism personally? JD VANCE: I think in reality what it actually means in the American context is you want to replace American workers with foreign workers, and you want boys to play in girls' sports —@MattGaetz: Florida LG Candidate @BryanAvilaFL was scheduled to appear on my @OANN program tonight but just canceled as his National Guard unit is being mobilized to respond to the forthcoming storm. This is a reminder of how Floridans operate. We come together, and we take care of one another. Senator Avila is a patriot and a true servant. Florida will be stronger because he will be among those available to lend a hand. We pray for our first responders, guardsmen, line crews and our neighbors. Hurricanes are tough. Floridians are tougher. Godspeed to Senator Avila and all who are serving. —@TheDaraKam: "We're certainly not gonna let the bastards grind us down on any of it." — @GovRonDeSantis blasts reporting/leaking on #HopeFlorida #Medicaid settlement with @Centene —@NateM_Tributary: Judges can’t erase time and alter reality. Reality: a grand jury convened and issued findings. Those findings say what they say. The judges in this case happened to disagree. Nothing about any of this calls any reporting into question. Tweet, tweet: Tweet, tweet:

Days until   Associated Industries of Florida one-on-one conversations with five top-of-ticket Republicans — 3; 'VisionQuest' premieres — 5; 'The Diplomat' season 4 premieres — 6; Optional General early voting begins — 10; 'Six Kings Slam' on Netflix — 12; Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 12; General Election ballot request deadline — 13; Mandatory General early voting begins — 15; General Election — 25; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 28; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 28; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 33; 'Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol' starring Johnny Depp premieres — 35; 'Paper Tiger' starring Adam Driver premieres — 35; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 39; New legislator training sessions — 39; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 39; ‘Madden’ premieres — 40; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 42; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 47; Committee Week #1 — 52; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 70; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 70; Committee Week #2 — 87; Committee Week #3 — 94; 'Ahsoka' season 2 premieres — 103; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 108; Committee Week #4 — 115; 'Remain,' directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 119; Grammys — 121; Committee Week #5 — 122; Super Bowl LXI — 128; Committee Week #6 — 129; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 144; Tampa Mayoral Election — 144; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 147; Jacksonville First Election — 151; Oscars — 156; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 167; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 167; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 187; Jacksonville General Election — 221; 'Star Wars: Starfighter' premieres — 231; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 252; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 280; 'The Bluey Movie' premieres — 301; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 336; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 434; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 470; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 472; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 480; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 487; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 494; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 497; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 501; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 508; Oscars — 513; 'X-Men' premieres — 574; ‘Miami Vice '85’ reboot premieres — 588; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 595; 'Days of Thunder' sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 602; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 616; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 644; 'Ghost Rider' premieres — 658; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 760; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 798; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 836; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,169; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,897.

Top story   “Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings in high-stakes fight over Florida sports betting monopoly” via Brody Wooddell of WFTV — Florida’s multibillion-dollar sports betting monopoly faces a new legal test as the Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings, accusing the gambling giant of illegally taking wagers under the guise of prediction markets and fantasy contests. The lawsuit threatens to redraw the boundaries of Florida’s tightly controlled sports betting industry. Filed Thursday in Broward County Circuit Court, the 72-page complaint names DraftKings, CEO Jason Robins, and GUS III LLC, which operates as DraftKings Predictions. The Tribe alleges Florida customers can wager on game outcomes, point spreads, player performances and other sporting events through the company’s app. DraftKings faces a legal showdown over where fantasy contests end and sports betting begins. The Tribe argues those offerings are conventional sports bets disguised as fantasy contests or event contracts. Its five-count complaint alleges illegal gambling, racketeering, deceptive trade practices and unfair competition. Robins is accused of personally directing the expansion of the disputed products. DraftKings maintains Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy sports product, and its other offerings are prediction markets. The company says its traditional sportsbook and casino remain unavailable in Florida. The allegations have not been proven in court. The Tribe wants an injunction shutting down the disputed offerings, a ruling declaring them illegal and the surrender of profits. The Tribe would use recovered money to prioritize consumer protection and problem-gambling programs. The financial stakes extend beyond DraftKings. Florida’s 2021 Gaming Compact gives the Tribe exclusive online sports betting rights through Hard Rock Bet, with at least $2.5 billion guaranteed to the state over five years. A court ruling could determine whether prediction markets can operate outside that arrangement.

2026   “Donalds walks Donald Trump tightrope as Florida Governor’s race intensifies” via Cheyanne M. Daniels and Dasha Burns of POLITICO — Republican gubernatorial candidate Donalds insists his relationship with President Trump remains strong despite removing prominent references to Trump from his campaign website. In a POLITICO interview, Donalds said the changes were designed to focus on Florida voters, particularly undecided voters, rather than distance himself from the President. “I’m allowed to have my own viewpoint,” he said, acknowledging policy differences. One involves artificial intelligence and data centers, where Donalds favors local control and requiring developers to shoulder costs. Trump has advocated expanding data centers and limiting state regulation. Donalds also defended Trump’s handling of the Iran war and credited him with helping advance his political career. Donald Trump and Byron Donalds navigate a relationship that keeps Florida’s Governor’s race in the spotlight. “Donalds makes emotional closing pitch alongside Rick Scott in Pinellas” via Evan Axelbank of FOX 13 Tampa Bay — Republican gubernatorial candidate Donalds delivered an emotional campaign speech in Largo, reflecting on his journey from poverty to potentially becoming Florida’s next Governor. Joined by U.S. Sen. Scott, Donalds pledged to represent all Floridians, not just the voters needed to win. With Election Day approaching, competing polls show a tightening contest against Jolly, including one survey showing a 45%-45% tie. Donalds touted his campaign’s million-door canvassing effort, while Scott emphasized Republicans’ 1.5 million-voter registration advantage. Scott acknowledged economic concerns, including rising unemployment and affordability challenges. Donalds maintains an 8-to-1 fundraising advantage, providing substantial resources for the campaign’s final weeks. “Donalds expands outreach to Black voters across Florida” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Donalds is highlighting efforts to reach Black voters through a statewide coalition of clergy, elected officials, educators and business leaders. Speaking in Pinellas County, Donalds said his campaign wants to engage communities traditionally overlooked by Republican candidates and govern beyond the narrow majority required for election. The Florida Coalition of Black Leaders for Donalds plans outreach at churches, barbershops and college campuses before Election Day. Its membership includes Democratic officials such as Gadsden County Sheriff Morris Young and Gainesville Commissioner Cynthia Chestnut. Jolly has assembled his own coalition of Black supporters. Donalds could become Florida’s first Black Governor. The campaign’s outreach strategy offers a distinct storyline beyond horse-race polling. Happening today — Donalds and Sen. Jim Boyd make a campaign retail stop: 9 a.m., Popi’s Place IV, 3911 U.S. 301, Ellenton. “Al Lawson backs Jolly and questions Donalds’ record” via James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat — Former North Florida U.S. Rep. Lawson endorsed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jolly and criticized Donalds’ congressional voting record. Lawson, who spent decades representing Tallahassee and surrounding communities, questioned Donalds’ positions on Medicaid, food assistance and voting rights. The endorsement comes as both campaigns court Black voters in the final weeks before November’s election. Donalds recently announced support from a coalition of Black elected officials and community leaders, including Tallahassee Republican Sen. Corey Simon. Lawson previously expressed reservations about Democrats nominating Jolly, a former Republican, but now says Jolly is focused on affordability and housing. Lawson plans to campaign with Jolly across North Florida, where his long-standing political relationships could help expand the nominee’s outreach. “Jolly details insurance overhaul and data center restrictions” via Kristine Bellino of 104.5 WOKV — Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jolly outlined proposals on homeowners insurance, immigration and development during a Jacksonville radio interview. The former Republican Congressman wants Florida to expand its hurricane fund, potentially using taxes on insurance company profits and other revenue to cover more storm losses. Jolly claimed the approach could eventually reduce homeowners insurance costs by 60% to 70%, though that projection remains unverified. He also proposed pausing new large data center projects while assessing environmental and infrastructure effects. On immigration, Jolly favored greater local discretion in cooperating with federal authorities. He called for improved access to primary healthcare and support for veterans awaiting federal services. Donalds was invited to appear on the program. —"Leon Sheriff Walt McNeil endorses José Javier Rodríguez for Attorney General" via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

More elections   “Jared Moskowitz gains edge as Crystal Ball shifts congressional race toward Democrats” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Democratic U.S. Rep. Moskowitz received an electoral boost as Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted his contest against Republican Scott Singer from toss-up to “leans Democratic.” The University of Virginia analysis suggests Republicans may struggle to capitalize on Florida’s newly redrawn congressional districts despite boundaries designed to favor GOP candidates. Moskowitz seeks a third term in District 25, which Trump carried by nine points in 2024. Crystal Ball also revised its assessment of District 22, where Republican Casey Askar faces Democrat Pia Dandiya. The Cook Political Report still rates both contests toss-ups, underscoring uncertainty as Democrats seek to overcome Republican redistricting advantages in November’s elections. Jared Moskowitz sees a new rating in his congressional contest, but Election Day still has the final word. “Hillsborough congressional contests feature contrasts on costs and healthcare” via Yacob Reyes of Axios Tampa Bay — Hillsborough County voters will decide two congressional races in newly drawn districts as mail voting gets underway. In District 12, former County Commissioner Kimberly Overman is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis. Overman emphasizes prescription drug prices and reproductive rights, while Bilirakis campaigns on the cost of living, border security, and Trump’s agenda. In District 14, Republican former state Rep. Mike Beltran is challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor. Castor highlights federal investments in Tampa International Airport and Port Tampa Bay, as well as healthcare and energy affordability. Beltran emphasizes his record of legislative tax cuts and expanded healthcare access. The contests give Tampa Bay voters competing approaches to household costs and federal priorities. Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Nov. 1. “María Corina Machado and Everglades Trust endorse María Elvira Salazar” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Salazar picked up endorsements from Venezuelan opposition leader Machado and the Everglades Trust as she campaigns for a fourth term in Florida’s 27th Congressional District. Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient, praised the Miami Republican’s support for democracy in Venezuela, saying Salazar had remained steadfast when others hesitated. The Everglades Trust pointed to her work on ecological restoration. The endorsements show support from prominent voices on two issues important to South Florida: Venezuela's future and Everglades protection. Salazar is seeking another term in a Miami-area District where international affairs and environmental policy intersect with local political concerns. The announcements come as candidates make their final appeals before the November General Election. "More former national security officials back Phil Ehr against Carlos Giménez in CD 28" via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Ehr is adding another endorsement from veterans of America's national security institutions. The Steady State — a network of more than 450 former intelligence, diplomatic, military, law enforcement and homeland security officials — announced its official support of the retired Navy Commander in his campaign to flip Florida's 28th Congressional District. "Our members know, from firsthand experience, what it costs to defend institutions under pressure. We see that same willingness in Phil Ehr," said the group's Executive Director, Steven Cash TO SEE MORE SUNBURN CLICK HERE