Fw: Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.7.26 — Burnin’ today: Tropical trouble, DeSantis, Donalds & Jolly, data centers, Bogen & Tony, AI, Bohannon & Florida panthers

An espresso shot of Florida politics — Sunburn ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Good Wednesday morning. Shumaker Advisors has hired Corey Recvlohe as vice president, based in St. Petersburg. Recvlohe will focus on state legislative advocacy, appropriations, and agency representation. He will work with municipalities, counties, and constitutional officers on state funding, infrastructure, disaster preparedness, and pre-emption. Corey Recvlohe brings legislative experience to his new role at Shumaker Advisors. He will also represent healthcare and life sciences organizations on genomic medicine, rare disease, hospital and academic medical center priorities, and facility regulation, and advise clients on public sector procurement, forensic and investigative technology, and public records and privacy issues. Recvlohe was a Legislative Aide to Rep. Adam Anderson for four Sessions, including 2025 and 2026, when Anderson chaired the Health Care Facilities & Systems Subcommittee. He also served as Political Director for Kevin Hayslett's campaign in Florida's 13th Congressional District. "His Florida House experience and ability to translate complex issues into practical strategies bring meaningful value to our work throughout Pinellas County and across Florida," said Ron Christaldi, president and CEO of Shumaker Advisors Florida. ___ The Florida Retail Federation has hired Chase Bohannon for its government relations team. Bohannon joins the statewide retail trade association after serving as a legislative aide in Rep. Brad Yeager’s office, where he tracked legislation, handled communications and constituent service, and worked with stakeholders and state agencies on District priorities. “We’re excited to welcome Chase to the Florida Retail Federation team,” said Scott Shalley, the federation’s president and CEO. “His legislative experience and understanding of the policymaking process will be a valuable asset as we continue advocating for Florida’s retail industry and the businesses and consumers we represent.” Chase Bohannon moves from the Florida House to the Florida Retail Federation’s government relations team. Yeager added, “During his time in my office, Chase proved to be an organized, dependable and highly capable member of our team who was vital to the success of my office. He worked to always be knowledgeable of all legislation within the silo. He will be missed in my office, but he is an immediate asset to the Florida Retail Federation.” Before working in the Legislature, Bohannon managed Rep. Erika Booth’s campaign for House District 35. “Chase is an exceptional communicator, strategist and relationship-builder,” Booth said. “I’ve seen firsthand his professionalism, work ethic and ability to bring people together and get results. I’m excited to see him take on this new role with the Florida Retail Federation and know he’ll be a tremendous asset to their team."

Situational awareness   —@EvanPower: A Governor (David) Jolly would appoint 14 of 17 on the university Board of Governors, all 7 on the State Board of Education (which hires the Education Commissioner), the PSC members who set your utility rates, and the DCF and Health chiefs. Your vote decides who picks. Tweet, tweet: —@GovGoneWild: Friends in the Panhandle, please start thinking about preparing —@iJordanMoore: Ticket prices to games 3 and 4 of the ALDS in the Bronx have dropped by nearly 40%, according to multiple ticket sites. Get-in is now under $90 at Yankee Stadium, lower than Tropicana Field for games 1, 2 and 5. So much for “die-hard” Yankees fans —@LasVegasLocal: More than 10,000 Las Vegas Valley homes are for sale for the first time since the Great Recession. Deals going under contract have dropped 5 months in a row, according to Brownell Analytics.

Days until   ‘The Social Reckoning,’ with Jeremy Strong, Jeremy Allen White and Mikey Madison, opens in theaters — 2; Associated Industries of Florida one-on-one conversations with five top-of-ticket Republicans — 5; ‘VisionQuest’ premieres — 7; ‘The Diplomat’ Season 4 premieres — 8; Earliest permitted General Election early voting begins — 12; ‘Six Kings Slam’ begins on Netflix — 14; Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 14; General Election vote-by-mail ballot request deadline — 15; Mandatory General Election early voting begins — 17; General Election — 27; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ opens in theaters — 30; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ opens in theaters — 30; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit begins — 35; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol,’ starring Johnny Depp, opens in theaters — 37; ‘Paper Tiger,’ starring Adam Driver, opens in limited release — 37; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America,’ is released — 41; New Senator training begins — 41; Senate convenes for organization and selection of officers — 41; ‘Madden’ premieres on Prime Video — 42; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ opens in theaters — 44; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, opens in IMAX theaters — 49; Committee Week #1 begins — 54; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ opens in theaters — 72; ‘Dune: Part Three,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, opens in theaters — 72; Committee Week #2 begins — 89; Committee Week #3 begins — 96; ‘Ahsoka’ Season 2 premieres — 105; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 110; Committee Week #4 begins — 117; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, opens in theaters — 121; Grammys — 123; Committee Week #5 begins — 124; Super Bowl LXI — 130; Committee Week #6 begins — 131; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 146; Tampa Mayoral Election — 146; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan, opens in theaters — 149; Jacksonville First Election — 153; 2027 Oscars — 158; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener vs. New York Mets — 169; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener vs. Baltimore Orioles — 169; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 189; Jacksonville General Election — 223; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ opens in theaters — 233; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ opens in theaters — 254; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins begins — 282; ‘The Bluey Movie’ opens in theaters — 303; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays begins — 338; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ opens in theaters — 436; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 472; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 474; 2028 Nevada Democratic Presidential Primary — 482; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 489; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 496; ‘The Batman Part II’ opens in theaters — 499; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 503; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 510; 2028 Oscars — 515; ‘X-Men’ opens in theaters — 576; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ opens in theaters — 590; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ opens in theaters — 597; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway opens in theaters — 604; ‘Incredibles 3’ opens in theaters — 618; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 646; ‘Ghost Rider’ opens in theaters — 660; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 762; ‘Black Panther 3,’ directed by Ryan Coogler, opens in theaters — 800; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 838; ‘Avatar 4’ opens in theaters — 1,171; ‘Avatar 5’ opens in theaters — 1,899.

Top story   “Tropical Depression 9 forms in Gulf, to become Atlantic’s first hurricane before striking U.S.” via Alex Sosnowski of AccuWeather — Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and could rapidly strengthen into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane before threatening the central Gulf Coast this weekend. Forecasters expect the system to become a tropical storm Wednesday and potentially reach Category 2 strength before landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical Depression Nine puts the Florida Panhandle on alert for a potentially historic late-season hurricane. The Florida Panhandle sits within the potential landfall zone, which currently stretches from southeastern Louisiana to western portions of the Panhandle. Warm Gulf waters should provide ample fuel for strengthening, although wind shear remains a potential limiting factor. Heavy rain could become the biggest danger. AccuWeather forecasts widespread totals of 1 to 4 inches across the Southeast, with bands of 4 to 12 inches near the storm’s track and isolated totals potentially reaching 25 inches. Saturated ground could significantly increase flooding risks. Conditions along the coast will deteriorate as the system approaches, with rough seas, dangerous rip currents and increasing squalls. Near landfall, AccuWeather projects gusts of 100 to 120 mph if the system reaches hurricane strength. Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and waterspouts could also develop east of the storm’s center, potentially extending the threat well beyond the immediate landfall area. The storm would also make history. If it reaches hurricane strength, it would become 2026’s first Atlantic hurricane — the latest first hurricane of a season in more than a century. —“Ron DeSantis declares emergency as tropical system threatens North Florida” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

2026   “Byron Donalds narrowly leads David Jolly while Donald Trump voters hesitate” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Donalds leads Jolly 47%-45% in a YouGov poll, with the two-point gap inside the survey’s 2.7-point margin of error. Seven percent remain undecided. Despite President Trump’s repeated endorsements, only 86% of his 2024 voters back Donalds, while 5% support Jolly. The Democrat retains 93% of Kamala Harris’ voters. The sample gives Republicans a 14-point partisan advantage, exceeding their statewide registration edge. Trump’s approval stands at 46%, with 54% disapproving. Donalds released an ad emphasizing Trump’s backing, while Jolly urged his campaign to reach undecided voters. The survey of 3,813 likely voters ran Sept. 28-Oct. 5, highlighting Donalds’ challenge in consolidating Republican support despite his substantial financial advantage with four weeks remaining before Election Day. —“Mason-Dixon poll: Donalds leads Jolly 48%-41%, with 1 in 4 independents still undecided” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics Donalds puts Trump, DeSantis endorsements on air in two new ads — Donalds' campaign added two 30-second spots to its multimillion-dollar television and streaming buy Tuesday, one built around Trump's endorsement and the other around Gov. DeSantis. In "Fighter," the President calls Donalds a "conservative warrior" and "a man who never stops fighting for the state of Florida," with a nod to the Trump tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security. "Never" pairs the DeSantis endorsement with an affordability contrast against Jolly: "I will keep your taxes low. I will lower your insurance costs, and I will make Florida more affordable." "Radical liberal David Jolly is change Florida can't afford. Jolly opposes property tax cuts; he wants a new $1,000 hurricane tax, and he will undo everything voters love about Florida under Gov. DeSantis," said Ryan Smith, Donalds' Chief Campaign Strategist. "Byron Donalds is proud to have the endorsement of President Trump and Gov. DeSantis, and he will fight side by side with them to keep the Left's radical and costly agenda out of Florida." To watch the ads, please click the images below: "Fighter" and "Never." —“Mason-Dixon poll: Ashley Moody hits 50%, Angie Nixon 40%, and Republicans back the Senator 91% to 3%” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics 🔖 — Bookmark this. Dave Trotter's Voting Trend is adding a forecast model to run alongside its nowcast model, which is 10 years old and, he says, remains by far the most accurate in Florida. The new model runs 10,000 simulations every time the data changes, usually every 10 minutes, to project the likely winner of a generic statewide race. Trotter hopes to expand the models for 2028 and says there might (emphasis on might) be forecasts for other Southern states too. The site is also getting a facelift, so don't panic if things look different the next time you check in. Dig into the new Voting Trend dashboard and leave the tab open through November. “Florida shields Trump’s voter information despite privacy law’s limits” via Angelique Rodriguez of Fresh Take Florida — Palm Beach County election officials removed Trump’s personal information from public voter files after he invoked a privacy law that does not cover the presidency. His March 24 request identified his office as the basis for protection. The elections office said it processed the sworn submission without checking eligibility, describing its role as administrative and ministerial. Sen. Jason Brodeur, one of the law's authors, said omitting the presidency was likely an accident and supports shielding Trump’s information. The change conceals addresses, birth date, party affiliation and email, and complicates tracking whether Trump votes by mail or in person. The White House did not answer questions, and election officials have not said whether they will restore his information to public voter records.

More elections   Stand for Freedom PAC launches 'Brings It Home' ad backing Mike Haridopolos in CD 8 — Stand for Freedom PAC is up with a 30-second spot supporting U.S. Rep. Haridopolos' re-election in Florida's 8th Congressional District. "Brings It Home" will air on cable and digital platforms across the District ahead of the General Election. The ad credits Haridopolos with securing funding for Kennedy Space Center, Port Canaveral, and the Brightline station in Cocoa, along with record money to clean up the Indian River Lagoon, and closes by asking voters to keep him in Congress. "The Space Coast sent Mike Haridopolos to Washington to deliver, and he has," a spokesperson for the PAC said. "Those projects are tied to the jobs and the quality of life of families in Brevard, Indian River and Orange counties. He has been one of the most effective freshmen in the House, and we want voters to see that record before they fill out their ballots." —“Crypto industry PAC gives to 32 House incumbents, on both sides” via Mark Schoeff Jr. of Roll Call "Darren Soto calls Dan Green more of the same in Spanish-language radio spot" via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Soto just launched a one-minute Spanish radio ad about the strain families feel in the grocery aisle. A female narrator in the ad calls out what it describes as corruption among Washington Republicans and suggests that Green, Soto's Republican opponent, would do little to change that. Soto's campaign said it put a six-figure buy behind the spot. "Central Florida families are working harder, paying more, and getting less, while Republicans like Dan Green in Congress fail to act," said Soto Campaign Manager Emmett Shell. "Darren has fought for our people since day one; while Dan Green would just keep the same pattern going." TO SEE MORE SUNBURN CLICK HERE