Suburn — 9.18.26 — Burnin’ today: Donalds & Jolly, Moody & Nixon, Amendment 3, Uthmeier, Salazar, Soto & Green, Tundidor & Starbucks

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Good Friday morning. Florida Democrats’ statewide nominees are heading to Miami-Dade this weekend for a show of unity in a county that has gone crimson after decades as a bedrock of the party. U.S. Senate nominee Angie Nixon, gubernatorial nominee David Jolly, Attorney General nominee José Javier Rodríguez, CFO nominee Annette Taddeo and Agriculture Commissioner nominee Joey Mendoza Atkins will headline the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s Blue Gala Saturday at the Frost Science Museum. Florida Democrats take their statewide ticket to Miami-Dade for Saturday’s Blue Gala. They will be joined by a long list of local officials, including Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins, who became the first Democrat to hold that post in three decades after her landslide win last year. FDP Chair Nikki Fried and a roster of congressional, legislative and local candidates are also slated to attend the event, which will be emceed by Rep. Ashley Gantt and jazz vocalist Nicole Henry. The bash comes as Florida Democrats once again find themselves outnumbered and underfunded, staring down an election that may well decide Florida’s leadership through the mid-2030s. If they plan to stem another “red tide,” they’ll need to reverse their fortunes in Dade — Hillary Rodham Clinton ran up the score against Donald Trump with a plus-30 win countywide 10 years ago, but that margin was quartered just four years later. Republicans ultimately carried it by double digits in 2024, when Trump won Florida by 13 points — a margin of victory not seen in Florida since before the Berlin Wall came down. Dems’ 2024 shellacking came despite the party holding a 2.5-point edge in registrations heading into Election Day. Two years later, even that cushion is gone: Republicans now account for 35% of the county electorate, compared with just under 32% for Democrats. ___ If you were expecting 2022, Part Deux, it may be time to rebalance your Kalshi portfolio. A new survey from St. Pete Polls finds Florida’s race for Governor compressed to the far side of the decimal point: Republican Byron Donalds draws 43.5% support, while Democrat Jolly takes 43.4%. Another 4.3% prefer someone else, with 8.9% still on the fence. A statistical tie — the margin of error is +/- 3.2% — is a change of pace compared to four years ago, when September polls showed Gov. Ron DeSantis up 3% in his re-election bid ahead of a November rout. Ron DeSantis offers a reminder that close September polling can still leave plenty of drama in November. The better historical echo may be 2018, though, the last election without an incumbent Governor. St. Pete Polls found DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum separated by just three-tenths of a point shortly after their Primaries. DeSantis won anyway, 49.6%-49.2%, and over the course of his administration the state has become precipitously more friendly to Republicans. The current candidates’ coalitions are sharply divided by age, with Jolly leading 64.8% to 16.5% among voters under 30 and 53.1% to 33.2% among those aged 30 to 49. What he lacks in Zoomer support, Donalds makes up for among boomers, who prefer him by 62.6% to 29.6%. Jolly also leads independents 47.8%-35.5%. The race for U.S. Senate has less empty space. Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Nixon 45.2% to 44.8%, with 2.9% choosing someone else and 7.1% undecided. Whatever ideological liabilities critics expected Nixon to bring into the General Election, this survey does not detect them. The crosstabs may even sharpen the point — Nixon draws 85.2% support among Dems, while Jolly, a former Congressman who last appeared on a November ballot as a Republican, draws 81.2%. Then there is Amendment 3, which is sitting at just 44.9% support with less than seven weeks left on the clock. To crack the required 60%, undecideds would need to break harder for the property tax amendment than recent history suggests is possible. Back in September 2018, the successful voting-rights restoration amendment stood at 71% support before passing with 64.5%. And, two years ago to the month, the recreational pot and abortion rights measures were comfortably over 60% before ultimately falling short. So, barring a “cherry on top” materializing in the final stretch, the prognosis is grim. ___ Former Hialeah Council President Jesus Tundidor is the first candidate to announce a campaign for the coming Special Election in House District 112. The healthcare executive and Hialeah resident served on the City Council from 2019 until January 2026. He is seeking to succeed Republican Rep. Alex Rizo, who is running for a Senate seat. Jesus Tundidor launches his bid for the coming HD 112 Special Election. Tundidor said his six years in city government focused on lower taxes, safer streets, seniors and fiscal accountability. At City Hall, he opposed tax increases and pushed to repeal Hialeah’s water and sewer franchise fee. In November, he placed second in a four-way race for Hialeah Mayor, behind Bryan Calvo. His House campaign has the backing of Rep. Mike Redondo, who won a race among House Republicans last year to become Speaker after the 2030 Elections. Redondo called Tundidor “the best candidate to represent District 112 in Tallahassee,” giving the campaign support from a future House leader. HD 112 covers most of Hialeah, Miami Springs, Virginia Gardens and part of Miami. The Special Election date has not been set. The vacancy will follow Rizo’s departure as he campaigns for the Senate, creating another South Florida legislative contest as the 2026 Election cycle moves toward November.

Days until   General Election UOCAVA ballot deadline — 1; Tampa Bay Buccaneers home opener against the Cleveland Browns — 2; General Election domestic ballot send window begins — 6; Tampa Tiger Bay hosts its 'Candidate Forum: Florida Governor Series' with Jolly — 7; General Election domestic ballot send deadline — 13; ‘Digger,’ with Tom Cruise, directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, premieres — 14; General Election voter registration deadline — 17; ‘The Social Reckoning,' with Jeremy Strong, Jeremy Allen White and Mikey Madison, premieres — 21; Associated Industries of Florida one-on-one conversations with five top-of-ticket Republicans — 24; 'VisionQuest' premieres — 26; 'The Diplomat' season 4 premieres — 27; Optional General early voting begins — 31; 'Six Kings Slam' on Netflix — 33; Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 33; General Election ballot request deadline — 34; Mandatory General early voting begins — 36; General Election — 46; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 49; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 49; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 54; 'Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol' starring Johnny Depp premieres — 56; 'Paper Tiger' starring Adam Driver premieres — 56; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 60; New legislator training sessions — 60; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 60; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 63; ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres — 68; ‘Madden’ premieres — 69; Committee Week #1 — 73; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 91; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 91; Committee Week #2 — 108; Committee Week #3 — 115; 'Ahsoka' season 2 premieres — 124; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 129; Committee Week #4 — 136; Grammys — 142; Committee Week #5 — 143; 'Remain,' directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 149; Super Bowl LXI — 149; Committee Week #6 — 150; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 165; Tampa Mayoral Election — 165; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 168; Oscars — 177; Jacksonville First Election — 186; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 188; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 188; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 208; Jacksonville General Election — 242; 'Star Wars: Starfighter' premieres — 252; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 260; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 301; 'The Bluey Movie' premieres — 322; ‘Miami Vice’ reboot premieres — 322; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 357; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 455; 2028 South Carolina Presidential Primary — 491; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 493; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 501; 2028 New Hampshire Presidential Primary — 508; 2028 New Mexico Presidential Primary — 515; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 518; 2028 Michigan Presidential Primary — 522; 2028 Virginia Presidential Primary — 529; Oscars — 534; 'X-Men' premieres — 595; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 616; 'Days of Thunder' sequel with Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 623; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 637; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 665; 'Ghost Rider' premieres — 679; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 781; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 819; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 857; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,181; College Football Playoff national championship game in Miami — 1,221; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,912.

Top story   Florida’s statewide races are suddenly a lot closer than expected — If there is one takeaway from the latest St. Pete Polls survey, it’s this: Florida’s statewide ballot is tight. Really tight. The races for Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General are all within the poll’s ±3.2-point margin of error, an unusual snapshot less than seven weeks before Election Day. Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon headline a statewide polling picture with little daylight. Republican Donalds leads Democrat Jolly 44% to 43% for Governor. Before rounding, they are separated by 0.1 percentage point. Nine percent remain undecided, and 4% chose someone else. That’s notably closer than several earlier surveys that showed Donalds with a larger advantage. The Senate numbers are even tighter. Republican U.S. Sen. Moody and Democratic Rep. Nixon are tied at 45%. Before rounding, Moody’s advantage is four-tenths of a point, with 7% undecided and 3% choosing another candidate. Nixon leads among voters outside the two major parties, while Moody retains 77% of Republicans. Then there’s Attorney General, where Republican James Uthmeier leads Democrat José Javier Rodríguez 43% to 42%. Before rounding, Uthmeier’s advantage is 1.4 points, which is also within the margin of error. But here’s the number that jumps off the page: 15% remain undecided, substantially more than in the Governor or Senate contests. Uthmeier is also the least electorally tested of the three Republican statewide candidates. DeSantis appointed his former Chief of Staff as Attorney General in 2025 after Moody moved to the Senate, making this Uthmeier’s first campaign for the office. Rodríguez, a Miami labor lawyer, previously served in both chambers of the Legislature. All three results come from the same survey of 913 likely General Election voters, weighted to Florida’s active voter rolls: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic and 27% no-party or minor-party voters. One poll is one snapshot, but these capture something worth watching: three statewide contests, three Republican leads of no more than a point after rounding, and plenty of November still ahead.

2026   "Positive momentum continues for David Jolly, as Inside Elections ups his chances in November," via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Jolly continues to receive rave reviews from national outlets that assess electoral prospects. The latest momentum came Thursday from Inside Elections, the first national race-rating agency to call Jolly's race against Donalds "Lean Republican." Mark Riddle, a senior adviser to the Jolly campaign, says that while "national ratings organizations continue to rapidly shift this race in David's direction, he is keeping his head down and focusing on the change agenda that got him here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers." "Our campaign has built a strong coalition, and that support will only grow as Floridians learn more about why David is the clear choice in this race," Riddle adds. David Jolly’s Governor campaign gets another national race-rating shift and some cross-party support. “Two Polk Republicans say they support Democrat Jolly” via Gary White of The Lakeland Ledger — If Jolly hopes to become Florida’s next Governor, he almost certainly needs to draw votes from registered Republicans. Two prominent conservatives from Polk County have now signaled their cross-partisan support for Jolly. Jolly held a news conference Sept. 14 in St. Petersburg to introduce the “Republicans for Jolly” campaign. Winter Haven resident Bobby Williams, who finished fifth in the Republican Primary in August, and Austin Gravley, a Frostproof City Council member, joined him for the event at Williams Park. Jolly announced the creation of a Republicans for Jolly committee, to be co-chaired by Manatee County Commissioner George Kruse and Greg Wilson, who served as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury Department from 1986-1989. "Byron Donalds says hotel taxes should be used for infrastructure," via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Donalds said he supports broadening the uses of hotel taxes in Florida, specifically to allow the levy on room nights and short-term rental stays to fund transportation and infrastructure projects. While both he and his Democratic opponent, Jolly, have said they support reform, Donalds said he prefers that counties maintain control of the funds. "Jolly's insurance proposal is to take that money … that's a non-starter," Donalds said. "We want to look at uses. Make sure the tourism industries are getting what they need while also making sure our infrastructure is also keeping up." "Amendment 3, the property tax cut for homeowners, is 15 points short of home" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — A constitutional amendment that would increase the homestead exemption to $250,000 in 2028 has 45% support among likely voters, 15 points short of the 60% it needs to pass. Another 30% oppose Amendment 3 and 25% are undecided, with less than seven weeks until Election Day. Republicans support Amendment 3 at 63% to 17%, with 20% undecided. DeSantis and Donalds both back it. The Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police and the Florida Professional Firefighters oppose the amendment, and DeSantis has broken with them over it. Florida Realtors contributed $10 million to its Vote Yes on 3 political committee. "Donalds says homeowners could leave if Amendment 3 fails" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Donalds says rejecting Amendment 3 could backfire on local governments by driving property owners out of Florida altogether. Speaking in Orlando, the Naples Congressman and Republican gubernatorial nominee said if the ballot measure fails, it could spur an exodus from the state. "Let me take a 100,000-foot view on this entire topic. If people start leaving Florida because they can't afford their property tax bills, then these local governments, who are upset now about the amendment, will be really upset when they have to cut their budgets. Because a property tax cut is one thing. If people leave and they're not paying property taxes at all, that's another," Donalds said. Byron Donalds makes his property-tax pitch with Amendment 3 still looking for more voters. "Ron DeSantis says sheriffs have room to cut their budgets if Amendment 3 passes" via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — DeSantis relied on the support of law enforcement to get elected twice, but he's breaking with sheriffs and police organizations that oppose Amendment 3, which would increase the homestead exemption to $250,000. "Look at how some of these Sheriff's Departments, like Broward, look where they were eight years ago versus their budget now. Budget's a billion dollars for a county Sheriff's Department," DeSantis said. "I'm not saying they're not doing good work on a lot of stuff, but there may be things in there that would be nice to have rather than need to have. I know there's different accoutrements that are done." “Angie Nixon’s past remarks surface in Senate campaign” via Frank Kopylov of Florida’s Voice — Newly circulating video clips show Nixon, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, making a series of provocative remarks about race, politics and the country’s direction. Nixon said Florida is where “woke or Black people go to die,” attributed Maine and Vermont allowing prisoners to vote partly to their predominantly White populations and called former Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry an “enemy.” Other clips show Nixon saying America and democracy are “falling” and criticizing conservative family policies. The remarks are surfacing as Nixon campaigns against Republican U.S. Sen. Moody in November. Nixon, who joined the Democratic Socialists of America this year, has emphasized her small-business background and economic issues during the campaign. TO SEE MORE SUNBURN CLICK HERE

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