What Happened to the High Tech President?

By: Dr. E. Eugene Webb

All during the election campaign we saw Candidate Obama with an I phone. He held it embraced it and used it. He probably did as much for the I phone as all the advertising. The campaign Tweeted, Face Booked and used every social media opportunity to communicate with donors, campaign workers and citizens. What happened? I haven't seen Obama lately with anything that resembles an I-Phone, I-Pad, Droid or anything else high tech for that matter. Security? Leaks? What's up? Does any one else at senior level Tweet? Hillary?, ……

When a revolution in Egypt, then Libya and all through out the mid east an maybe even in China is all but fomented by social media the High Tech Prez is no where to be seen. Scared and wounded by WIKI Leaks, cautioned at every turn about possible ramifications it seems like Obama has crawled into the political equivalent of a radio wave proof screen room. It looks like old time politics have slowly replaced the tech savvy staff that got the President elected.

Like it or not social media are pushing the envelope and becoming the thread that weaves the global culture together. Maybe the President of the United states should not be Tweeting or responding on Face Book, but then when an entire society rises up in the call of freedom and risks everything using social media as the primary method of communication and motivation then just maybe he should.

20th Century Diplomacy Tackles a 21st Century Global Crisis

By: Dr. E. Eugene Webb

In case you haven’t noticed Governments all over the globe are playing catch up in the current Egyptian Libyan revolutions. All governments, including the Obama administration, are proceeding with dealing with these modern day revolutions like they would have in 1980. While the news media continually report that these revolutions are being fueled by the internet, social media and the ability to rapidly communicate, the political elite chooses to meet in closed door sessions evaluate with committees and fly around the world to talk. Meantime people are dying, oil prices are going through the roof and almost every leader in the major capitals of the free world has a puzzled look on their face.

Today the oil companies, oil speculators and every one else with their finger in the oil pie are watching in real time and making their decisions based on instantaneous information. One can only guess that big oil has operatives on the ground in every one of these crisis areas reporting moment by moment what is going on. How is it that gas prices rise within hours of events occurring? Simple, Big oil and the commodities markets are not waiting for the US government or anyone else to make a decision they are going on the facts from the ground in real time.

Political correctness, diplomatic protocol, and respect for the borders of a tyrant are no longer the guiding principals for decision making. It is just possible that the Obama administration is missing the launching of an all out war on the US economy by the petro rich, a petro jihad, that is using all of the modern tools of communication to quickly manipulate the one force that can sink the current US economic recovery. Moammar Gadhafi is a madman. We have known that for several decades. But in the interest of diplomacy and Big Oil we have coddled this tyrant and now we are reaping the rewards of our actions. Obama seems stumped. His economic recovery may be oozing way in a flood of oil price increases, yet he is reluctant to step and lead. Let’s start talking about nationalizing the oil industry, fixing oil prices, taking Big oil out of the equation. The president of Exon says $4.00/gal oil won’t hurt the US economy. Certainly not his economy as Exon will likely post the biggest profits in its history. $4.00/gal gas will sink Obama’s presidency if the economy slips back over the edge.

We look to the UN, long for partners to help us so we can share the responsibility for action, talk and talk and talk while the US economy is bleeding at the rate of 1 billion dollars for each 1 cent in gasoline price increase. On the ground in Libya people are dying from bombings inflicted by their own government while our Secretary of Defense bemoans even the thought of a no fly zone. The Secretary of State wrings her hands, the UN drones on while people who long for some hint of freedom are murdered by a madman. Sounds more like the late 1930s when another madman ruled than the twenty first century with all of its technology.


Doc

Who Really Benefits When Oil Prices Go Up

Dr. E. Eugene Webb

Here we are once again, political upheaval in the mid east and immediately gas prices in the US take off. The question remains why? The answer is unmitigated greed. There is no shortage of oil. It is very unlikely there will be a shortage of oil. Believe me, if it looks like oil supplies are seriously threatened you will see all of the UN mumbo jumbo thrown out the window and the major oil consuming countries will move in politically and yes militarily to keep the black juice flowing. Why then is uncertainty the reason for rapid and unjustified increases in consumer prices. Answer same as above GREED. Everyone in the supply chain sees a chance to make a lot of money really fast based on fear not the reality of the cost of oil.

As long as oil trades on the open market as a commodity, speculators will use these events to artificially inflate oil prices for their own profit. Oil does not cost one penny more to produce today that it did three weeks ago. The pipe line is full and there is plenty of refined product. You might think all of this increase flows back to the oil sheik in his tent, but not so. Most of it ends up as profit for the Big Oil and the speculators who drive the futures market. Watch Big Oil’s profit reports in the next few quarters and futures divisions of the major brokerage houses. They will continue to sky rocket. Big oil loves all of this chaos. They are the ones who profit the most.

Given the strategic importance of oil to all economies, it is time put the futures traders who suck billions out of the economy, while adding no real value, out of the oil business. Oil producing and oil consuming nations need to take oil out of the futures trading market, establish a global crude oil management system and fix crude oil prices to a unique currency made up of a combination of the Euro, Dollar and Yen. Nothing would do more to stabilize the global economy and give emerging nations economic and political stability.

Doc

Three Reasons While High Speed Rail Will Not Work

Dr. E. Eugene Webb
Local politicos are screaming their heads off trying to figure out a way to get the Fed’s high speed rail money into Florida. The thinking is all short sighted and fails to look at the realities of business and the economy.

Reason One: All of the facts are flawed and biased; cost to build, cost to operate and the number of jobs it will create.

Reason two. Private enterprise is unlikely to go on the hook for the whole deal. If they do here is the 800 pound gorilla. BANKRUPCY. It will be set up as a subsidiary or private wholly owned company. If the rail project starts to tank private enterprise, no matter who they are, what the agreed too, or what they signed, will run away from this like rats from a sinking ship. They have too. The have their equity owners to worry about and any executive who doesn’t will be out the door in a heart beat. Just how long do the leaders of Tampa, Lakeland and Orland think these guys will hang on. Answer not very long. They will sign anything, say anything and do almost anything to get their hands on the Fed’s money. But when the money is gone, ridership doesn’t materialize and it goes south all we will see is red tail lights and the taxpayers will be stuck with the bill. If you think for one minute three cities can litigate their way through that mess, then high seed rails for you.

Reason three: Local governments have a horrible history negotiating long term contracts with private industry. Even when they have lots of time to do the deals, these agreements often fail. The local high speed rail initiative being driven by Mayor Iorio is moving at lightning speed and there is little chance they can cover all the bases to protect the citizens of these communities. So here is the question. If you live in Tampa, Lakeland or Orlando are you willing to bet your future tax rates on high speed rail? If this project fails the only place the bailout money can come from is the governments who signed on for the deal.
Think about it.

Doc

Blessing or Boondoggle - Scott Sacks High Speed Rail

Dr. E. Eugene Webb

The bleating hearts of wounded politicians have begun to cry like wolves howling at the moon. At a time when every one of their governments, Tampa, Orland and Miami are in serious economic trouble they want to focus the ire on Governor’ Scotts decision to pass on High Speed Rail. The hype concocted to sell this massive project is staggering. The Mayor of Tampa is accusing Scott of being just short of a traitor and politicians from Washington to Tampa are expressing disbelief and shock. The problem is none of these people every stopped to take a serious look at the big picture.

The ridership figures are flawed. The cost is likely way understated, the promise of the private sector picking up cost overruns and operating shortfalls cannot be guaranteed. The contracts will be full of outs and in the long run the private sector can just walk and the Florida tax payer is still stuck with the bill.
“We were hoping the process could go forward with the private sector,” said Barney Bishop III, president and chief executive officer of Associated Industries. “The problem is that ridership numbers are always optimistic and construction numbers are minimized so it ends up costing more. The governor is not looking at any more liabilities for Florida taxpayers, and we understand where he’s coming from. Economically and fiscally, that has to be a superior reason to anything else.”
It takes a lot of courage to standup and make a decision that on the surface flies in the face of logic. But the fact is there is not enough critical thinking in Government. No serious unbiased business case planning. Once a pile of money is in site all reason flies out the window. Get the money - get the money. There is not and never was a solid business case for high speed rail. Not here not in Wisconsin or Ohio. A few large companies, some consultants and contractors were going to get very rich and the rest of us would get the experience of watching an empty bullet terrain fly by us at 225mph as we drove to Orlando on a still crowed I-4. Would you really ride it? Core infrastructure that supports commerce and industry is the key to more Florida prosperity. The Mouse will due just fine bullet train or not.
Governor Scott is going to take a lot of heat over this one but he is right. We need to focus on the core infrastructure and not shiny things that cost a lot, go fast, cost taxpayers and arm and a leg and make politicians feel better. Scott’s political advisories are going to make hay over this one, casting him as the Villon. But in 7 to 10 years when the stories about states going broke supporting their high speed rail system with no riders begin to show up, Floridians may just be experiencing a good economy and reasonable taxes. Ya gotta hand it to the bald guy. He has some big ones.
Doc

Is Big Oil Sabotaging the US Economic Recovery?

By; Dr. Eugene Webb

Just as it looks like the US is crawling out of the worst recession in years, oil prices, and as expected, gasoline prices have begun to rise dramatically. The question is why and there are a lot of answers from a lot of people. Thomas Friedman’s “law of Petropolitics” suggests that there is a negative correlation between the “price of oil and pace of freedom,” which “always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states.” In other words there is direct link in the evolution of freedom and the price of oil. There are a lot of opinions about Friedman’s theory, but if you correlate oil prices and the growth of democratic progress in the oil rich states there is an inverse correlation. As oil prices go up the opportunities for the development of democratic institutions in countries benefitting from increased oil revenues seem to decrease.

So the question is how that might relate to current conditions in the US. It is certainly true that the economic conditions of the last few years have garnered the attention of both political parties. Much of their efforts to resolve domestic economic issues continue to be akin to a mating dance of two large birds as they try to develop polices that will work and support their political objectives. All of this activity tends to pull the politicians away from the international scene and cause them to focus on domestic issues. You know, it’s the economy stupid.
Big oil, as we like to refer to it, is really nothing more than a distribution system for a product, crude oil, produced in the Mideast by many of the countries that dislike us the most. Big oil is a surrogate for these governments who produce crude oil and then use the enormous transfer of wealth caused by America’s demand for oil into revenue streams that, using Friedman’s theory of Petropolitics, restrict the development of freedom. With the US totally distracted by its own economic woes, these same countries have been able to continue to create crisis after crisis in the Mideast and elsewhere stretching US military resources to the breaking point and raising the fear level here at home while we are trying to resurrect a struggling economy.

With some pinging and testing, OPEC has discovered that they can quickly affect the rate of economic recovery in the US by merely adjusting crude oil prices. More accurately by increasing or restricting production. Their other big asset, the US commodities market, gives a big assist by manipulating crude oil futures prices in an often near panic as the oil rich puff and posture about oil production. The Mideast oil Barons have the US economy in the palm of their hands. In other words, using Big Oil, the Mideast crude oil producers can speed up or slow down the US economy almost at will.
Once again as the US economy begins to look positive, oil prices suddenly begin to rise. Market pundits and followers blame the Fed’s monetary policy saying oil is a commodity and merely adjusts its price to make up for diluted weaker dollar. Maybe, but what about this theory? If the US economy really did pick up steam and the public became less frightened and more positive, would the Obama administration be likely to turn more of their attention to international concerns and start putting more pressure on the Mideast regimes that are thwarting the freedom of their own people (Petropolitics) and threatening our security? It seems logical that a really strong US economy may not be in Big Oil’s best interest. Demand for gasoline and petroleum based products is remaining very strong in the US and so raising the price may slightly reduce unit sales but total revenues rise. Remember marginal returns from Econ 101?

The theory thus becomes if Big oil can keep the US economy in a mild state of crisis by manipulating consumer behavior through high gasoline prices, while not unduly reducing sales volume, revenue flow to petro states continues to grow. The petro states can become more totalitarian solidifying control within their own boarders, while government attention in this country must stay focused on internal domestic and economic affairs for political if no other reasons. Therefore the petro states can continue to successfully export terrorism.
It is a widely accepted view that oil money funds most if not all of the subversive and terror activity in the Middle East. The question then becomes are higher oil prices in the US the result of economic activity such as actions of the Federal Reserve, or are they a well calculated strategy on the part of the very interests we work so hard every day to protect ourselves from? Petro attacks instead of cyber attacks. One easy way to find out would be for the Obama administration to slam the door on oil prices through price control, restrictions on futures trading, or utilization of the strategic reserve or a combination of both. Dangerous and complex solutions to what may be the biggest threat to our long range economic recovery.
As long as Big Oil has its foot on the throttle of our domestic engine, economic recovery will be when they want it to occur and my bet is that is that will be much later than sooner.
Doc