A mid-decade redistricting effort increasingly appears to be in Florida's future. But uncertainty remains about how aggressive the Republican-controlled Legislature can get, and how many House seats Florida should have. Gov. Ron DeSantis this week said that if the state conducts a new census, Florida might gain "four or five seats." Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier suggested that even without a complete tabulation of the U.S. population, the Commerce Department could still "correct" mistakes from the last census and give Florida at least one more seat.  Ron DeSantis eyes new districts, targeting Jared Moskowitz, Darren Soto, and other Florida Democrats. But many experts acknowledge that to complete redistricting before a Midterm Election might be logistically impossible. Multiple Republican sources noted that it would be a multistate effort and some states, like Illinois, have deadlines for congressional candidates to qualify for 2026 before the close of 2025. That makes it unlikely that Florida will be able to secure extra seats for a new map draw, but forces are certainly trying to make it happen. But assuming Florida still has 28 House seats for election next year, how many can become competitive? The National Republican Congressional Committee already targets Reps. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat, and Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat. Both represent districts that were narrowly carried in November by Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and by Democratic Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, according to MCI Maps. Republicans believe it could be easy to reshape both districts into jurisdictions won by President Donald Trump last year. Soto represents Florida's 9th Congressional District, where the Hispanic population has already swung more Republican. Shedding parts of liberal Orange County in favor of conservative Polk County could mean a dramatic swing. Moskowitz, in Florida's 23rd Congressional District, won re-election in November by the smallest margin of any delegation member. Reshaping the nearby Florida's 20th Congressional District, represented by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick — an avenue possible after the Florida Supreme Court's criticism of racial access districts — could give mapmakers room to redraw other boundaries and add more Republican-leaning areas in Palm Beach County to Moskowitz's district. The same changes to Cherfilus-McCormick's district could steal Democratic precincts from Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Weston Democrat representing Florida's 25th Congressional District, and allow the addition of GOP areas from Miami-Dade County. If Republicans in Tallahassee feel incredibly aggressive, it's possible to also come for Rep. Lois Frankel, a West Palm Beach Democrat in Florida's 23rd Congressional District, or even to make a play for Rep. Kathy Castor, a Tampa Democrat, in Florida's 14th Congressional District. But even GOP experts warn that it comes with risks. An attempt to weaken either seat could hurt Rep. Brian Mast, a Stuart Republican whose district neighbors Frankel's. In the Tampa Bay area, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a St. Petersburg Republican, already appears to be Democrats' top target in 2026 in Florida, and Castor's district cannot be made more competitive without making Luna's district a coin flip. One Republican noted that any rise in the number of battleground seats also means more districts where the GOP can lose, and Midterms are rarely kind to the party in the White House. |
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