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Extensive Media Enterprises Good Friday morning. Former Gov. Charlie Crist continues to dominate the six-person field for St. Petersburg Mayor, a new poll shows. A St. Pete Polls survey taken this week shows Crist leading the pack with more than 34% support. Incumbent Ken Welch follows at 19%, with St. Pete City Council Member Brandi Gabbard in third at 15% support. No other candidate reaches double-digit support, with former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large posting 8.5% support, and Kevin Batdorf and Maria Scruggs tied at 3%. In a hypothetical General Election matchup between Crist and Welch, Crist leads decisively 45% to 30%, with 25% still undecided under that scenario. 
Charlie Crist leads Ken Welch and Brandi Gabbard, making St. Petersburg’s crowded Mayor’s race look less crowded. But here’s the first shocker. Among those who say they have already voted — a metric widely considered one of the most reliable — Welch is in third place. There, Gabbard leads Welch at 14.5% to 12%. Under St. Pete’s charter, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff in the General Election, which means Welch would be eliminated in the Primary should polling numbers hold. And that’s where the second shocker comes in. Based on polling among those who have already voted, Gabbard would be eliminated too. That’s because Crist is at more than 50% support among those who have already voted. A runoff is only held in the General Election if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote. Right now, according to the poll, Crist’s 51% support among those who have already cast their ballot would allow him to win the election outright on Aug. 18. Voters started receiving mail ballots about two weeks ago. Early voting begins Aug. 8 and runs through Aug. 16, with Election Day on Aug. 18. As of Thursday afternoon, voter turnout across Pinellas County, which includes more than just St. Pete, was at less than 6%, meaning there is still plenty of voting to come. With the latest polls, voters might want to keep an eye on how the Crist campaign responds — does it go for broke and try to win it in the Primary, or gear up for a General Election matchup against either Gabbard or Welch? ___ New polling shows U.S. Rep. Mike Haridopolos holding a 9-point lead over Democrat Jennifer Jenkins in Florida’s 8th Congressional District — an advantage that doubles once voters learn more about both candidates. The survey, conducted July 27-29 by Republican polling firm Inquire, found Haridopolos leading Jenkins 51% to 42% among likely voters in the newly drawn District, with 7% undecided. After respondents were presented with additional information about both candidates, Haridopolos' lead widened to 55%-37% — an 18-point advantage. 
Jennifer Jenkins and Mike Haridopolos face competing polls, because even the numbers are campaigning now. That finding serves as a direct rebuttal to a Democratic poll Jenkins circulated earlier this month claiming she pulls into a "dead heat" once voters hear her biography. The Inquire survey suggests the opposite dynamic is at work: the more voters learn about the matchup, the wider the incumbent's margin becomes. The poll also found Haridopolos posting a plus-10 favorability rating, with 33% of respondents viewing him favorably and 23% unfavorably. Jenkins registered a plus-8 image rating, though just 16% of voters viewed her favorably and 8% unfavorably — a sign the former Brevard County School Board member remains unknown to most of the electorate. Jenkins launched a U.S. Senate bid last year before switching to the congressional contest after lawmakers redrew the state’s congressional map. The broader political environment also favored Republicans. Respondents preferred a generic Republican congressional candidate over a Democrat by a 52%-42% margin. Gov. Ron DeSantis recorded a 56%-43% job approval rating, while President Donald Trump's approval stood essentially even, at 49% approve and 50% disapprove. According to the pollster, the survey intentionally included an oversample of voters registered with no party affiliation. Haridopolos also holds a commanding financial advantage, with nearly a 9-to-1 cash-on-hand edge entering the final months of the campaign. Federal campaign finance reports covering activity through June 30 show Haridopolos with more than $1.18 million in the bank, compared with about $132,000 for Jenkins. The redrawn District, which includes all of Brevard County and a swath of eastern Orange County, is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Trump carried the new District by an estimated 16 percentage points in 2024. |