Good Friday morning. Florida Democrats’ statewide nominees are heading to Miami-Dade this weekend for a show of unity in a county that has gone crimson after decades as a bedrock of the party. U.S. Senate nominee Angie Nixon, gubernatorial nominee David Jolly, Attorney General nominee José Javier Rodríguez, CFO nominee Annette Taddeo and Agriculture Commissioner nominee Joey Mendoza Atkins will headline the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s Blue Gala Saturday at the Frost Science Museum. 
Florida Democrats take their statewide ticket to Miami-Dade for Saturday’s Blue Gala. They will be joined by a long list of local officials, including Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins, who became the first Democrat to hold that post in three decades after her landslide win last year. FDP Chair Nikki Fried and a roster of congressional, legislative and local candidates are also slated to attend the event, which will be emceed by Rep. Ashley Gantt and jazz vocalist Nicole Henry. The bash comes as Florida Democrats once again find themselves outnumbered and underfunded, staring down an election that may well decide Florida’s leadership through the mid-2030s. If they plan to stem another “red tide,” they’ll need to reverse their fortunes in Dade — Hillary Rodham Clinton ran up the score against Donald Trump with a plus-30 win countywide 10 years ago, but that margin was quartered just four years later. Republicans ultimately carried it by double digits in 2024, when Trump won Florida by 13 points — a margin of victory not seen in Florida since before the Berlin Wall came down. Dems’ 2024 shellacking came despite the party holding a 2.5-point edge in registrations heading into Election Day. Two years later, even that cushion is gone: Republicans now account for 35% of the county electorate, compared with just under 32% for Democrats. ___ If you were expecting 2022, Part Deux, it may be time to rebalance your Kalshi portfolio. A new survey from St. Pete Polls finds Florida’s race for Governor compressed to the far side of the decimal point: Republican Byron Donalds draws 43.5% support, while Democrat Jolly takes 43.4%. Another 4.3% prefer someone else, with 8.9% still on the fence. A statistical tie — the margin of error is +/- 3.2% — is a change of pace compared to four years ago, when September polls showed Gov. Ron DeSantis up 3% in his re-election bid ahead of a November rout. 
Ron DeSantis offers a reminder that close September polling can still leave plenty of drama in November. The better historical echo may be 2018, though, the last election without an incumbent Governor. St. Pete Polls found DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum separated by just three-tenths of a point shortly after their Primaries. DeSantis won anyway, 49.6%-49.2%, and over the course of his administration the state has become precipitously more friendly to Republicans. The current candidates’ coalitions are sharply divided by age, with Jolly leading 64.8% to 16.5% among voters under 30 and 53.1% to 33.2% among those aged 30 to 49. What he lacks in Zoomer support, Donalds makes up for among boomers, who prefer him by 62.6% to 29.6%. Jolly also leads independents 47.8%-35.5%. The race for U.S. Senate has less empty space. Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Nixon 45.2% to 44.8%, with 2.9% choosing someone else and 7.1% undecided. Whatever ideological liabilities critics expected Nixon to bring into the General Election, this survey does not detect them. The crosstabs may even sharpen the point — Nixon draws 85.2% support among Dems, while Jolly, a former Congressman who last appeared on a November ballot as a Republican, draws 81.2%. Then there is Amendment 3, which is sitting at just 44.9% support with less than seven weeks left on the clock. To crack the required 60%, undecideds would need to break harder for the property tax amendment than recent history suggests is possible. Back in September 2018, the successful voting-rights restoration amendment stood at 71% support before passing with 64.5%. And, two years ago to the month, the recreational pot and abortion rights measures were comfortably over 60% before ultimately falling short. So, barring a “cherry on top” materializing in the final stretch, the prognosis is grim. ___ Former Hialeah Council President Jesus Tundidor is the first candidate to announce a campaign for the coming Special Election in House District 112. The healthcare executive and Hialeah resident served on the City Council from 2019 until January 2026. He is seeking to succeed Republican Rep. Alex Rizo, who is running for a Senate seat. 
Jesus Tundidor launches his bid for the coming HD 112 Special Election. Tundidor said his six years in city government focused on lower taxes, safer streets, seniors and fiscal accountability. At City Hall, he opposed tax increases and pushed to repeal Hialeah’s water and sewer franchise fee. In November, he placed second in a four-way race for Hialeah Mayor, behind Bryan Calvo. His House campaign has the backing of Rep. Mike Redondo, who won a race among House Republicans last year to become Speaker after the 2030 Elections. Redondo called Tundidor “the best candidate to represent District 112 in Tallahassee,” giving the campaign support from a future House leader. HD 112 covers most of Hialeah, Miami Springs, Virginia Gardens and part of Miami. The Special Election date has not been set. The vacancy will follow Rizo’s departure as he campaigns for the Senate, creating another South Florida legislative contest as the 2026 Election cycle moves toward November. |
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